15290 N Coronado Forest Dr · Catalina, AZ 85739

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1996 1.33 ac lot $175/sqft · at area comps Est $221k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on 1.33 acres of natural desert landscape, this property is all about space, privacy, and possibility. Wander through shaded areas, discover quiet nooks perfect for a picnic table or firepit, and imagine creating your own outdoor retreat surrounded by trees and nature. The property includes an affixed manufactured home with 2 bedrooms and an office, offering a comfortable starting point while you make the space your own. Whether you're looking for room to spread out, relax, or reimagine, this property delivers the kind of opportunity that's getting harder to find! Home needs significant updating--priced for land value and potential.

Key facts

• Shaded areas
• Room to spread out
• Outdoor retreat

Tags

• NATURAL DESERT LANDSCAPE
• SHADED AREAS
• OUTDOOR RETREAT
• AFFIXED MANUFACTURED HOME
• ROOM TO SPREAD OUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - CR1; Property listed in fixer condition; Approximately 1.33-acre lot

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 3 covered/carport spaces; Circular driveway; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Shingle and metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered and screened patio/porch; Deck; Patio; Greenhouse; Shed(s); Workshop; Additional carport; View fencing; Cul-de-sac lot; Graded lot with shrubs; Front sprinklers; Paved road access (city maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Gas cooktop
• Bedrooms: One-level home
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Propane heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Convection oven; Gas cooktop
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Dryer with electric hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $222k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.3% in Catalina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#200 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coronado K-8 School (math 33% / reading 39%, grade F, #456 of 1,109 statewide, top 41%, 665 students, 43% FRL); Ironwood Ridge High School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #80 of 381 statewide, top 21%, 1,556 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $225k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.06%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,251
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: 1.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4151 E Coronado Forest Pl	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-3%)	18mo	$293,525	$235	75
4540 E Quail Ranch Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+13%)	18mo	$203,500	$140	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-9,577
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $26,065
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85739

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,217/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15456 N Twin Lakes Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,500	$1.85	44d	1	0.46mi
15925 N Capstan Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,725	$1.73	24d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $225,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   status $250,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-05-12
   status Active 654-char remark
5. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 654-char remark
6. 2026-05-01
   listed $250,000 Active 654-char remark
7. 1987-09-15
   soldstatus $100,000
8. 1987-09-01
   soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,217 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$268/yr (+$22/mo · 22.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,217
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,185
• − Management: −$2,185
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $1,455
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$349
• After-tax cash flow: $4,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Catalina

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #200
• US rank: #20345

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Catalina, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,749

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.24%
• Current HPI: 211.3845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2150.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $225,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-06-17 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-26 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-04 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-01 Listed $250,000 MLSSAZ
• 1987-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,217 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.