1531 Filbert St

San Francisco, CA 94123

$2,098,000A-

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,680 sqft · Built 1960 · MultiFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,765/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,002
• Tax + insurance: −$1,255
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,991
• Net cashflow: $6,517/mo
• Annual: $78,207/yr
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.31%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $587,440

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $2.10M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($78k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $2.10M).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $186k of equity ($15k loan paydown + $172k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 59 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $587k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$298k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $23,765/mo this rent would consume 130% of the median local household income ($219k/yr) (locally 883% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.