3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,931 sqft ·
Built 1948
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 21 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,783/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,265
Tax + insurance
−$424
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$585
Net cashflow
$510/mo
Annual
$6,126/yr
Cap rate
8.83%
Cash-on-cash
9.07%
DSCR
1.40
1% rule
1.15%
Cash to close
$67,536
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $241k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $241k).
It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $238k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Jessie P. Miller Elementary School (math 61% / reading 53%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 614 students, 66% FRL); Manatee High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,983 students, 59% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $35k; list at $241k implies a 589% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,783/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 1736% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2WH7JQ20AZBYVF
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29