170 Hillcrest Dr

Eggertsville, NY 14226

$195,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · Built 1938 · SingleFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,701/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-11/mo
• Annual: $-133/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-133/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (12.8% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#34 in NY, #534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Sweet Home Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #342 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Maplemere Elementary School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 491 students, 42% FRL); Sweet Home Middle School (math 21% / reading 52%, grade F, #464 of 729 statewide, top 64%, 768 students, 54% FRL); Sweet Home Senior High School (math 93% / reading 87%, grade A+, #238 of 1,100 statewide, top 23%, 1,072 students, 46% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $155k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Eggertsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.