170 Hillcrest Dr · Eggertsville, NY 14226

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1938 5,689 sqft lot Est $218k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly updated Amherst 1000sqft 2 bed 1 bath ranch. Updates include newly updated kitchen & bath. New furnace just installed. Fresh paint, New flooring throughout. New roof. Vinyl replacement windows. 2 car garage. Fenced yard. Living room w/ fireplace. Just bring your furniture and enjoy this affordable home. Sweethome schools. Taxes only $2900yr

Key facts

• 5,689 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1938

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-133/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Eggertsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#34 in NY, #534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Sweet Home Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #342 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Maplemere Elementary School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 491 students, 42% FRL); Sweet Home Middle School (math 21% / reading 52%, grade F, #464 of 729 statewide, top 64%, 768 students, 54% FRL); Sweet Home Senior High School (math 93% / reading 87%, grade A+, #238 of 1,100 statewide, top 23%, 1,072 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $155k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $170,082 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 Hillcrest Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	952 (0%)	0mo	$185,000	$194	100
16 Woodcrest Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	983 (+3%)	1mo	$238,550	$243	77
364 Homecrest Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+1%)	13mo	$220,000	$229	76
630 Emerson Dr	0.08mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,033 (+8%)	1mo	$302,500	$293	74
528 Sweet Home Rd	0.73mi	2/1.0	896 (-6%)	5mo	$176,000	$196	52
642 Emerson Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (+15%)	18mo	$185,000	$169	51
39 Hartford Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,060 (+11%)	1mo	$265,000	$250	47
53 Larch Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,020 (+7%)	17mo	$185,000	$181	35
67 Castle Ct	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+15%)	8mo	$260,000	$238	35
44 Glenhurst Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,062 (+12%)	12mo	$225,000	$212	33
173 Coronation Dr	0.69mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,024 (+8%)	19mo	$267,000	$261	32
53 Hartford Rd	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,085 (+14%)	20mo	$210,900	$194	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-23,287
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $19,843
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14226

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,701 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,011/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,715

Max offer price $193,038

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $44	+0% $-11	+5% $-66	+10% $-121
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-78	+0% $-11	+5% $56	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $38	base $-11	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4765 N Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	45d	1	0.25mi
427 Emerson Dr Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	570	$1,355	$2.38	21d	1	0.33mi
79 Rosemont Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1071	$2,200	$2.05	45d	1	0.80mi
780 Millersport Hwy Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	45d	1	0.95mi
1335 Millersport Hwy Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	713	$1,595	$2.24	13d	1	1.01mi
1335 Millersport Hwy Unit 1335-06 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	560	$1,415	$2.53	45d	1	1.01mi
1335 Millersport Hwy Unit 04 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	713	$1,595	$2.24	3d	1	1.01mi
3948 Ridge Lea Rd Unit D Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	952	$1,850	$1.94	3d	1	1.05mi
1357 Millersport Hwy Unit 1357-03 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	713	$1,595	$2.24	45d	1	1.06mi
1357 Millersport Hwy Unit 1335-06 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	560	$1,415	$2.53	45d	1	1.06mi
1357 Millersport Hwy Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	636	$1,595	$2.51	3d	2	1.06mi
63 Garnet Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	45d	1	1.11mi
1525 Amherst Manor Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	3d	5	1.30mi
325 Kaymar Dr Unit 325 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,695	$1.58	45d	1	1.35mi
2776 Eggert Rd #2 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	972	$1,600	$1.65	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $195,000
3. 2026-03-11
   listed $209,000 Active
4. 2023-04-01
   soldstatus $155,000 Closed Sale or Rented 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Newly updated Amherst 1000sqft 2 bed 1 bath ranch. Updates include newly updated kitchen & bath. New furnace just installed. Fresh paint, New flooring throughout. New roof. Vinyl replacement windows. 2 car garage. Fenced yard. Living room w/ fireplace. Just bring your furniture and enjoy this affordable home. Sweethome schools. Taxes only $2900yr

5. 2023-02-05
   status Pending Sale 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Newly updated Amherst 1000sqft 2 bed 1 bath ranch. Updates include newly updated kitchen & bath. New furnace just installed. Fresh paint, New flooring throughout. New roof. Vinyl replacement windows. 2 car garage. Fenced yard. Living room w/ fireplace. Just bring your furniture and enjoy this affordable home. Sweethome schools. Taxes only $2900yr

6. 2023-01-14
   listed $159,900 Active 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Newly updated Amherst 1000sqft 2 bed 1 bath ranch. Updates include newly updated kitchen & bath. New furnace just installed. Fresh paint, New flooring throughout. New roof. Vinyl replacement windows. 2 car garage. Fenced yard. Living room w/ fireplace. Just bring your furniture and enjoy this affordable home. Sweethome schools. Taxes only $2900yr

7. 2022-10-13
   soldstatus $70,000
8. 2013-09-25
   soldstatus $77,000 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   Well maintained cozy Ranch with plenty of updates. Amenities include ceramic bathroom with jetted bathtub, first floor laundry, rear sun room overlooking the fully fenced yard. Brick fireplace in living room, oak kitchen cabinets with cherry laminate floors and solid concrete block garage. Street just finished sewer and gas line upgrades. Home close to all the area amenities. Possible expansion into second floor for 3rd bedroom. Easy to show.

9. 2013-09-25
   soldstatus $77,000

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   Well maintained cozy Ranch with plenty of updates. Amenities include ceramic bathroom with jetted bathtub, first floor laundry, rear sun room overlooking the fully fenced yard. Brick fireplace in living room, oak kitchen cabinets with cherry laminate floors and solid concrete block garage. Street just finished sewer and gas line upgrades. Home close to all the area amenities. Possible expansion into second floor for 3rd bedroom. Easy to show.

10. 2013-06-17
    listed $77,000 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    Well maintained cozy Ranch with plenty of updates. Amenities include ceramic bathroom with jetted bathtub, first floor laundry, rear sun room overlooking the fully fenced yard. Brick fireplace in living room, oak kitchen cabinets with cherry laminate floors and solid concrete block garage. Street just finished sewer and gas line upgrades. Home close to all the area amenities. Possible expansion into second floor for 3rd bedroom. Easy to show.

11. 2013-01-16
    listed $77,000
12. 2009-10-16
    soldstatus $64,766
13. 2001-01-31
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,011 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,153 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: +$142/yr (+$12/mo · 4.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,011
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,633
• − Management: −$1,633
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,437
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$825
• After-tax cash flow: $692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweet Home Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,509
• Composite: 44.67/100
• National rank: #2765
• State rank: #342 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eggertsville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #534

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 29,482
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,159
• Household income: $84,325
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 856.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.71%
• Current HPI: 331.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+550.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $195,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $209,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-04-01 Sold (MLS) $155,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-02-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-01-14 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-25 Sold (MLS) $77,000 WNYREIS
• 2013-06-17 Listed $77,000 WNYREIS
• 2013-01-16 Listed $77,000 WNYREIS
• 2009-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $64,766 Public Records
• 2001-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,011 · -21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.