2816 Lafferty Rd #4

Pasadena, TX 77502

$495,000D

20 bd · 0.0 ba · 4,368 sqft · Built 1964 · MultiFamily · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,270/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$1,437
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,107
• Net cashflow: $130/mo
• Annual: $1,565/yr
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.82%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $495k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $33/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $495k).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($450k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $450k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.4% in Pasadena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,270/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?