2816 Lafferty Rd #4 · Pasadena, TX 77502

$495,000

20 bd · 0.0 ba · 4,368 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1964 0.46 ac lot $113/sqft · 12% above area Est $441k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Exceptional opportunity! This fully leased 4-plex offers four spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath units, each designed for comfortable living with functional layouts in a 2 story townhome style property with modern amenities and onsite laundry room. All units have there own private balcony, patio and covered parking area. A brand new roof was recently installed, all leases are currently month to month providing options for the new owner. Ideally situated directly in front of a beautiful city park featuring tennis courts, baseball fields, and a water park—providing endless outdoor activities just steps from the property. Bailey Elementary school is located 1 block away. Strong rental potential, unbeatable location, and proximity to recreation and education make this property a standout addition to any portfolio. Property has prelim docs available for a future built on the location.

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• Private balcony
• Fully leased 4-plex

Tags

• FULLY LEASED 4-PLEX
• MODERN AMENITIES
• ONSITE LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• COVERED PARKING AREA
• BRAND NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive. Per door: $31/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $495k).
• Recommended offer: $450k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.4% in Pasadena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,261/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($450k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $450,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $441,317
• List price: $495,000
• Delta: 12.16%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-71,904
• Equity at exit: $73,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-50,651
• Equity at exit: $42,799

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77502

• Home prices YoY: -14.2%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 31.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$804 /mo · $9,651/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,105
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,105

Max offer price $495,000

Occupancy floor 93%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	2	$5,260
Total (4 units)			$5,261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $495,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $495,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $495,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $495,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $495,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $495,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $495,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $495,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $495,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $495,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $495,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $495,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $495,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-03-19
    listed $495,000 Active 894-char remark

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Exceptional opportunity! This fully leased 4-plex offers four spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath units, each designed for comfortable living with functional layouts in a 2 story townhome style property with modern amenities and onsite laundry room. All units have there own private balcony, patio and covered parking area. A brand new roof was recently installed, all leases are currently month to month providing options for the new owner. Ideally situated directly in front of a beautiful city park featuring tennis courts, baseball fields, and a water park—providing endless outdoor activities just steps from the property. Bailey Elementary school is located 1 block away. Strong rental potential, unbeatable location, and proximity to recreation and education make this property a standout addition to any portfolio. Property has prelim docs available for a future built on the location.

15. 2025-12-31
    historical
16. 2025-09-03
    listed $495,000 Active
17. 2022-07-05
    historical
18. 2022-05-09
    status Active
19. 2022-05-03
    status Pending
20. 2022-04-22
    status Option Pending
21. 2021-10-19
    price $495,000
22. 2021-07-12
    listed $480,000 Active
23. 2018-01-25
    soldstatus
24. 2016-05-06
    soldstatus
25. 2014-12-19
    soldstatus
26. 2003-02-05
    soldstatus
27. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,651 · $804/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,651 · $804/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$9,651
• − Insurance: −$7,594
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,051
• − Management: −$5,051
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$6,342
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,522
• After-tax cash flow: $3,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasadena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,163
• Composite: 26.15/100
• National rank: #7275
• State rank: #612 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pasadena

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #11438

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 109,190
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,371
• Household income: $62,500
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1285.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 83% Two or more races 37% White 12% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 40% English-only · Spanish 60%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.12%
• Current HPI: 278.9293
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $495,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $495,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-05-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-19 Price Changed $495,000 HARMLS
• 2021-07-12 Listed $480,000 HARMLS
• 2018-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,651 · -8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.