8178 Skeena Way

Birch Bay, WA 98230

$700,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,255 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,970/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax + insurance: −$763
• HOA: −$258
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-2,345/mo
• Annual: $-28,146/yr
• Cap rate: 2.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.02%
• DSCR: 0.38
• 1% rule: 0.42%
• Cash to close: $196,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $700k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-28k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (59.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (57.6% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($679k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $286k (59.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $75k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $380k; list at $700k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$120k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.