8178 Skeena Way · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$700,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,255 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2005 9,077 sqft lot $215/sqft · 15% below area Est $785k · 11% under $258/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Here's your chance to sprawl out in this 3,000+ sq ft plus home featuring a BRAND NEW roof and water heater in the coveted Birch Bay Village neighborhood! Lightly lived in and on the market for the first time ever. .. you'll love how all the primary living is on the main level. Vaulted ceilings set the stage and this bright and light 4 bedroom PNW Craftsman feels inviting right from the start. Lower level features two HUGE bonus/recreation rooms plus 2 bedrooms, offering so much flexibility. Relax and unwind from the wrap around deck. Unrivaled Birch Bay Village resort-style amenities include 24 hour security gate, 9 hole golf course, private deep-water marina, clubhouse, pool, parks and s

Key facts

• 9 hole golf course
• Brand new roof
• Water heater

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• WATER HEATER
• WRAP AROUND DECK
• 24 HOUR SECURITY GATE
• 9 HOLE GOLF COURSE
• PRIVATE DEEP-WATER MARINA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-28k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (59.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (57.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (59.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $75k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$120k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($679k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $380k; list at $700k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,665 (59.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.02%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 19.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $784,671
• List price: $700,000
• Delta: -10.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8024 Chinook Way	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,362 (+3%)	2mo	$885,000	$263	68
8148 Quinault Rd	0.15mi	3/2.5	2,820 (-13%)	4mo	$670,000	$238	68
8012 Chinook Way	0.45mi	3/2.5	2,867 (-12%)	9mo	$950,000	$331	52
8254 Sehome Rd	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	3,086 (-5%)	23mo	$650,000	$211	48
5643 Nakat Way	0.51mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,123 (-4%)	23mo	$1,690,000	$541	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $232,109
• Equity at exit: $630,615

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $801,518
• Equity at exit: $1,359,946

Cash invested: $196,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 19.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,970 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax from tax record: −$416 /mo · $4,986/yr
• Insurance: −$292
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$258
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-2,345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,939

Max offer price $285,665

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $175,000
• Closing costs: $21,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $258 · $3,096/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-11
   price $700,000
2. 2026-04-20
   price $735,000
3. 2026-03-27
   listed $759,000 Active
4. 2005-08-25
   soldstatus $379,900
5. 2005-08-25
   soldstatus $379,900
6. 2005-05-02
   listed $379,900
7. 2004-02-02
   soldstatus $32,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,986 · $416/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,860 · $572/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,874/yr (+$156/mo · 37.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥79°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,211
• − Property taxes: −$4,986
• − Insurance: −$4,166
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,851
• − Management: −$2,851
• − HOA: −$3,096
• − Depreciation: −$20,364
• Taxable loss: −$41,888
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,053
• After-tax cash flow: $-18,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+2053.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $700,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $735,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $759,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $379,900 Public Records
• 2005-08-25 Sold (MLS) $379,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-02 Listed $379,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,986 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.