3021 Valley High Dr

Cedar Falls, IA 50613

$249,900D-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,531 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,991/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-30/mo
• Annual: $-360/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-360/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (20.3% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $199k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#60 in IA, #1,357 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Cedar Falls Community School District (urban): math 76% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #45 of 289 in IA (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Hill Elementary School (math 75% / reading 79%, grade A, #103 of 616 statewide, top 20%, 436 students, 32% FRL); Peet Junior High School (math 79% / reading 80%, grade A+, #35 of 246 statewide, top 16%, 670 students, 27% FRL); Cedar Falls High School (math 74% / reading 78%, grade A-, #75 of 336 statewide, top 23%, 1,302 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 287 units permitted in Black Hawk County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Black Hawk County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $214k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Cedar Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.