3021 Valley High Dr · Cedar Falls, IA 50613

$249,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,531 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1980 8,556 sqft lot Est $222k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated split foyer home, nestled on a quiet, dead end street. Featuring four good sized bedrooms and two updated bathrooms, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and style. The updated kitchen is a standout, complete with contemporary finishes and plenty of space for cooking and gathering. Step outside to a large deck overlooking a serene green space that provides added privacy and peaceful views year-round. Located steps from a nearby park, you’ll love the convenience and access to outdoor recreation. This home also offers exceptional storage with an oversized two-stall garage and two additional sheds, giving you plenty of options for a workshop,

Key facts

• Large deck
• Updated kitchen
• Nearby park

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LARGE DECK
• SERENE GREEN SPACE
• NEARBY PARK
• EXCEPTIONAL STORAGE
• OVERSIZED TWO STALL GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-360/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Cedar Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#60 in IA, #1,357 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Cedar Falls Community School District (urban): math 76% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #45 of 289 in IA (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Hill Elementary School (math 75% / reading 79%, grade A, #103 of 616 statewide, top 20%, 436 students, 32% FRL); Peet Junior High School (math 79% / reading 80%, grade A+, #35 of 246 statewide, top 16%, 670 students, 27% FRL); Cedar Falls High School (math 74% / reading 78%, grade A-, #75 of 336 statewide, top 23%, 1,302 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 287 units permitted in Black Hawk County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Black Hawk County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $214k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,069 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,995
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3021 Valley High Dr	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,756 (+15%)	0mo	$260,000	$148	75
4034 Mark Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,582 (+3%)	2mo	$245,000	$155	70
4015 Mark Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,660 (+8%)	3mo	$210,000	$127	63
3816 Monterey Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,506 (-2%)	3mo	$180,000	$120	62
3230 Terrace Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,486 (-3%)	2mo	$214,950	$145	61
3852 Jay Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (+5%)	1mo	$220,000	$137	61
456 Loma St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,586 (+4%)	3mo	$215,000	$136	58
4803 Millenium Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,429 (-7%)	3mo	$290,000	$203	57
743 Progress Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,738 (+14%)	2mo	$230,000	$132	56
5109 Millenium Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,494 (-2%)	3mo	$303,900	$203	54
943 Progress Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,354 (-12%)	4mo	$224,900	$166	52
1137 Fleur Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,352 (-12%)	4mo	$192,500	$142	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,493
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-49,599
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50613

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,991 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,256/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,029

Max offer price $244,603

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $111	-5% $41	+0% $-30	+5% $-101	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-187	-5% $-109	+0% $-30	+5% $49	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $34	base $-30	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3856 Jay Ln Waterloo, IA	3.0	3.5	1520	$1,975	$1.30	45d	1	0.52mi
1247 Doreen Ave Waterloo, IA	4.0	1.0	1288	$1,500	$1.16	22d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $249,900 Active
3. 2020-09-08
   soldstatus $214,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,256 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,090 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: +$834/yr (+$69/mo · 37.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,256
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,130
• After-tax cash flow: $770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cedar Falls Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1906510
• Math proficiency: 76% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,634
• Composite: 65.93/100
• National rank: #443
• State rank: #45 of 289 in IA

Livability — Cedar Falls

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #1357

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Falls, IA
• County: Black Hawk County · 112,933 people
• City population: 43,867
• Metro: Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA
• Population (ZIP): 43,867
• Household income: $78,503
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1514.0

Population outlook (Black Hawk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 139,716 people
• By 2030: 142,853 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 147,843 · +5.8%
• By 2050: 153,247 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 167,977 · +20.2%
• By 2100: 177,320 · +26.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Asian 3% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Black Hawk

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 48.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.3pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.2 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.3 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -175.51%
• Current HPI: 169.0591
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.97%
• Metro: Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+16.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-15 Listed $249,900 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2020-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $214,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,256 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.