Newlin Plan

Springfield, FL 32404

$239,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,791/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,893
• Tax + insurance: −$602
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-1,080/mo
• Annual: $-12,961/yr
• Cap rate: 2.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.82%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $101,098

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (25.4% below list).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 4.7% in Springfield — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.