Newlin Plan · Panama City, FL 32404

$239,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily · 139 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Majors Collection is a new series of single-family homes for sale at the Magnolia Ridge masterplan in Panama City Beach, FL. Residents will enjoy convenient access to the turquoise waters of the Gulf, with convenient proximity to ample shopping at local boutiques, farmers markets and large retailers. The community is located only a mile from I-10 for easy commutes and travel.

Key facts

• Local boutiques
• Large retailers
• Ample shopping

Tags

• AMPLE SHOPPING
• LOCAL BOUTIQUES
• FARMERS MARKETS
• LARGE RETAILERS
• EASY COMMUTES

🏗️ New construction. The $239,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,740.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-698 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary School (math 18% / reading 18%, grade F, #2,115 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 562 students, 76% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1200 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $179,133 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.78%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,740
• List price: $239,990
• Delta: -21.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3942 Lombard St #9	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	6mo	$249,990	$170	91
3934 Lombard St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	8mo	$249,990	$170	89
3805 Wall St #102	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+6%)	0mo	$259,000	$165	80
3844 Wall St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+6%)	4mo	$279,900	$178	77
3828 Wall Street St Unit HS 93	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+6%)	3mo	$266,990	$170	76
3813 Wall Street St Unit HS 104	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-12%)	1mo	$238,000	$184	69
3820 Wall Street St Unit HS 95	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-12%)	4mo	$270,900	$210	67
3852 Wall Street St Unit HS 87	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-12%)	5mo	$262,375	$203	66
3832 Wall Street St Unit HS 91	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-12%)	4mo	$273,515	$212	66
105 Aleczander Preserve Ct	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (+5%)	7mo	$300,000	$194	57
3950 Red Deer Cir	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,650 (+12%)	2mo	$329,900	$200	43
3946 Red Deer Cir	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,650 (+12%)	3mo	$329,900	$200	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-97,282
• Equity at exit: $45,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.81×
• Total profit: $-154,969
• Equity at exit: $26,435

Cash invested: $85,607 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.9 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $275,990 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1200
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,791 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,586/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-698

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,675

Max offer price $204,775

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-486	-5% $-592	+0% $-698	+5% $-803	+10% $-909
Rent	-10% $-839	-5% $-769	+0% $-698	+5% $-627	+10% $-556
Rate	-1.0pp $-544	-0.5pp $-620	base $-698	+0.5pp $-777	+1.0pp $-858

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,435
• Closing costs: $9,172
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3641 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	62d	1	0.68mi
3525 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	70d	1	0.78mi
3611 Eagle Ln Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	943	$1,350	$1.43	62d	1	0.79mi
2601 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,700	$1.24	62d	1	0.93mi
3733 Avon Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	70d	1	0.94mi
2611 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	70d	1	0.97mi
3530 Game Farm Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	62d	1	1.02mi
2732 Usery Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	62d	1	1.07mi
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	70d	1	1.26mi
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	62d	1	1.30mi
3545 Brentwood Pl Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,200	$1.36	70d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $239,990 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $239,990 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $239,990 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $239,990 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $239,990 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $239,990 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $239,990 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $239,990 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $239,990 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $239,990 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $239,990 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $239,990 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $239,990 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $239,990 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,990 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $239,990 Active 116 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $239,990 Active 115 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $239,990 Active 114 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,990 Active 113 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $239,990 Active 112 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $239,990 Active 111 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $239,990 Active 110 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $239,990 Active 109 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $239,990 Active 108 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $239,990 Active 107 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,990 Active 106 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $239,990 Active 105 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $239,990 Active 104 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $239,990 Active 103 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $239,990 Active 102 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $239,990 Active 101 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $239,990 Active 100 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $239,990 Active 99 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,990 Active 98 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,990 Active 97 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $239,990 Active 96 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $239,990 Active 94 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $239,990 Active 92 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $239,990 Active 91 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $239,990 Active 89 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $239,990 Active 88 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $239,990 Active 87 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $239,990 Active 86 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $239,990 Active 85 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $239,990 Active 83 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $239,990 Active 82 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $239,990 Active 80 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $239,990 Active 79 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,990 Active 78 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,990 Active 77 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,126
• − Property taxes: −$4,586
• − Insurance: −$1,529
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − Depreciation: −$8,894
• Taxable loss: −$14,079
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,379
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-family home in the Majors Collection at Magnolia Ridge is move-in ready with a spacious open floorplan, new construction, and modern amenities. It is ideal for those seeking a new home in a desirable location with easy access to the Gulf of Mexico and local shopping.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cedar Grove Elementary School F FL #2,115/2,144 Nat'l #34,815/41,679 Middle Merritt Brown Middle School F FL #388/571 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Bay High School F FL #367/667 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Listed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-24 Listed $299,990 Zillow