Newlin Plan · Springfield, FL 32404

$239,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily · 89 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Majors Collection is a new series of single-family homes for sale at the Magnolia Ridge masterplan in Panama City Beach, FL. Residents will enjoy convenient access to the turquoise waters of the Gulf, with convenient proximity to ample shopping at local boutiques, farmers markets and large retailers. The community is located only a mile from I-10 for easy commutes and travel.

Key facts

• Local boutiques
• Large retailers
• Ample shopping

Tags

• AMPLE SHOPPING
• LOCAL BOUTIQUES
• FARMERS MARKETS
• LARGE RETAILERS
• EASY COMMUTES

🏗️ New construction. The $239,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $361,064.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 4.7% in Springfield — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $179,133 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.82%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,064
• List price: $239,990
• Delta: -33.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -42.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-130,598
• Equity at exit: $53,836

10-year hold

• IRR: -85.1%
• Equity multiple: -1.13×
• Total profit: $-215,336
• Equity at exit: $31,218

Cash invested: $101,098 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,791 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,893
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$451 /mo · $5,416/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-1,080

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,159

Max offer price $204,775

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,266
• Closing costs: $10,832
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3641 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	13d	1	0.68mi
3525 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	20d	1	0.78mi
3611 Eagle Ln Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	943	$1,350	$1.43	13d	1	0.79mi
2601 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,700	$1.24	13d	1	0.93mi
3733 Avon Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	20d	1	0.94mi
2611 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	20d	1	0.97mi
3530 Game Farm Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	13d	1	1.02mi
2732 Usery Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	13d	1	1.07mi
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	20d	1	1.26mi
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	13d	1	1.30mi
3545 Brentwood Pl Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,200	$1.36	20d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $239,990 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,990 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,990 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,990 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,990 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,990 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,990 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,990 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,990 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,990 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,990 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,990 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,990 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,990 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,990 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $239,990 Active 70 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,990 Active 69 DOM
18. 2026-03-22
    listed $249,990 Active 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    The Majors Collection is a new series of single-family homes for sale at the Magnolia Ridge masterplan in Panama City Beach, FL. Residents will enjoy convenient access to the turquoise waters of the Gulf, with convenient proximity to ample shopping at local boutiques, farmers markets and large retailers. The community is located only a mile from I-10 for easy commutes and travel.

19. 2026-02-19
    price $249,990 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

20. 2026-02-18
    price $304,990 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

21. 2025-10-24
    listed $299,990 Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,225
• − Property taxes: −$5,416
• − Insurance: −$1,805
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − Depreciation: −$10,504
• Taxable loss: −$19,894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,774
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-family home in the Majors Collection at Magnolia Ridge is move-in ready with a spacious open floorplan, new construction, and modern amenities. It is ideal for those seeking a new home in a desirable location with easy access to the Gulf of Mexico and local shopping.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20265

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Listed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-24 Listed $299,990 Zillow