Is Newlin Plan in Panama City, FL a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.7% cap rate and $-663/mo modeled cash flow at a $239,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Newlin Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 3.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,835/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 28.35

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.4/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Livability +3.6/5.0
Schools +3.1/10.0
Rent growth +2.8/5.0
1% rule +1.0/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$239,990

Newlin Plan · Panama City, FL 32404

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily · 185 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 17% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Majors Collection is a new series of single-family homes for sale at the Magnolia Ridge masterplan in Panama City Beach, FL. Residents will enjoy convenient access to the turquoise waters of the Gulf, with convenient proximity to ample shopping at local boutiques, farmers markets and large retailers. The community is located only a mile from I-10 for easy commutes and travel.

Key facts

Local boutiques
Large retailers
Ample shopping

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-663 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (12.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (23.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $183k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary School (math 18% / reading 18%, grade F, #2,115 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 562 students, 76% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1365 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $183,492 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.60% ✗
Cap rate: 3.69%
Cash-on-cash: -9.30%
DSCR: 0.59
GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $305,740
List price: $239,990
Delta: -21.51%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3809 Wall St Unit HS 103	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-4%)	0mo	$238,350	$169	84
3816 Wall Street St Unit HS 96	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-4%)	1mo	$247,990	$176	80
3821 Wall St Unit HS 106	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+6%)	1mo	$239,990	$153	79
3805 Wall St #102	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+6%)	2mo	$259,000	$165	79
3828 Wall Street St Unit HS 93	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+6%)	5mo	$266,990	$170	74
3804 Wall St Unit HS 99	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-12%)	1mo	$234,490	$182	69
3813 Wall Street St Unit HS 104	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-12%)	3mo	$238,000	$184	68
3820 Wall Street St Unit HS 95	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-12%)	5mo	$270,900	$210	66
3832 Wall Street St Unit HS 91	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-12%)	5mo	$273,515	$212	64
3687 Basal St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+4%)	1mo	$313,277	$205	59
3950 Red Deer Cir	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,650 (+12%)	3mo	$329,900	$200	42
3946 Red Deer Cir	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,650 (+12%)	4mo	$329,900	$200	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -34.9%
Equity multiple: -0.11×
Total profit: $-95,169
Equity at exit: $45,587

10-year hold

IRR: -59.4%
Equity multiple: -0.76×
Total profit: $-150,622
Equity at exit: $26,435

Cash invested: $85,607 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 48 active · 45 under contract
Months of supply: 7.8 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $269,990 ($179/sqft)
Median days on market: 41 d
This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +15.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32404

Home prices YoY: -16.1%
Rents YoY: 1.1%
Active inventory: 1365
Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,835 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,603
Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,586/yr
Insurance: −$127
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
Net cashflow: $-663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,675

Max offer price $209,757

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-452	-5% $-558	+0% $-663	+5% $-769	+10% $-875
Rent	-10% $-808	-5% $-736	+0% $-663	+5% $-591	+10% $-518
Rate	-1.0pp $-509	-0.5pp $-586	base $-663	+0.5pp $-743	+1.0pp $-823

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $76,435
Closing costs: $9,172
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3641 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	108d	1	0.68mi
3525 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	116d	1	0.78mi
3611 Eagle Ln Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	943	$1,350	$1.43	108d	1	0.79mi
2742 Largo Ave Apt B Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,350	$1.30	6d	1	0.86mi
4415 Conifer Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1743	$2,200	$1.26	6d	1	0.86mi
2601 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,700	$1.24	108d	1	0.93mi
2699 Largo Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	6d	1	0.93mi
3733 Avon Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	116d	1	0.94mi
3513 Mill Point Cv Callaway, FL	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,050	$1.41	6d	1	0.96mi
3516 Mill Point Cv Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,000	$1.52	6d	1	0.97mi
2611 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	116d	1	0.97mi
3530 Game Farm Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	108d	1	1.02mi
2732 Usery Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	108d	1	1.07mi
4007 Pioneer Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1788	$2,200	$1.23	6d	1	1.25mi
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	116d	1	1.26mi
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,100	$1.18	6d	1	1.30mi
3545 Brentwood Pl Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,200	$1.36	116d	1	1.31mi
3326 Ten Acre Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,800	$1.31	6d	1	1.37mi
2914 Ormond Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,195	$1.23	6d	1	1.39mi
2910 Ormond Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,195	$1.23	6d	1	1.39mi
2916 Sequoia Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,295	$1.38	6d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $239,990 Active 185 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $239,990 Active 184 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $239,990 Active 182 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $239,990 Active 181 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $239,990 Active 180 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $239,990 Active 179 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $239,990 Active 178 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $239,990 Active 177 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $239,990 Active 176 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $239,990 Active 175 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $239,990 Active 174 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $239,990 Active 173 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $239,990 Active 167 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $239,990 Active 166 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $239,990 Active 165 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $239,990 Active 160 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $239,990 Active 159 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $239,990 Active 158 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $239,990 Active 157 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $239,990 Active 156 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $239,990 Active 155 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $239,990 Active 154 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $239,990 Active 153 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $239,990 Active 152 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $239,990 Active 151 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $239,990 Active 150 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $239,990 Active 149 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $239,990 Active 148 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $239,990 Active 147 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $239,990 Active 146 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $239,990 Active 145 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $239,990 Active 144 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $239,990 Active 143 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $239,990 Active 142 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $239,990 Active 141 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $239,990 Active 140 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $239,990 Active 139 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $239,990 Active 138 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $239,990 Active 137 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $239,990 Active 136 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $239,990 Active 135 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $239,990 Active 134 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $239,990 Active 131 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $239,990 Active 130 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $239,990 Active 129 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $239,990 Active 127 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $239,990 Active 125 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $239,990 Active 123 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $239,990 Active 122 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $239,990 Active 121 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $22,019
− Mortgage interest: −$17,126
− Property taxes: −$4,586
− Insurance: −$1,529
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
− Management: −$1,762
− Depreciation: −$8,894
Taxable loss: −$13,639

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,273
After-tax cash flow: $-4,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-family home in the Majors Collection at Magnolia Ridge is move-in ready with a spacious open floorplan, new construction, and modern amenities. It is ideal for those seeking a new home in a desirable location with easy access to the Gulf of Mexico and local shopping.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cedar Grove Elementary School F FL #2,115/2,144 Nat'l #34,815/41,679 Middle Merritt Brown Middle School F FL #388/571 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Bay High School F FL #367/667 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Bay
NCES district ID: 1200090
Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income: $47,740
Composite: 43.41/100
National rank: #3014
State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Panama City

Score: 72/100
State rank: #350
US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Bay County · 206,264 people
City population: 91,445
Metro: Panama City, FL
Population (ZIP): 42,514
Household income: $74,708
Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 206,264 people
By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
Current HPI: 263.7178
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
Metro: Panama City, FL
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Industrial Technology	2	$29B
#159 Carrier Global Palm Beach Gardens $22.2B #376 Roper Technologies Sarasota $6.8B
Insurance	2	$17B
#348 Fidelity National Financial Jacksonville $12.1B #494 Brown & Brown Daytona Beach $4.6B
Retail	1	$60B
#71 Publix Super Markets Lakeland $60.2B
Technology Distribution	1	$58B
#73 TD Synnex Clearwater $58.5B
Homebuilding	1	$35B
#185 Lennar Miami $35.4B
Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B
#122 Jabil St. Petersburg $34.7B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-03-22 Listed $249,990 Zillow
2026-02-19 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
2026-02-18 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
2025-10-24 Listed $299,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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