27312 Little Bear

Lake Arrowhead, CA 92317

$949,800D+

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,178 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,466/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,981
• Tax + insurance: −$997
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,568
• Net cashflow: $-80/mo
• Annual: $-958/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $265,944

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $950k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-958/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $936k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $747k (21.4% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($893k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $747k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#965 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 15 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $550k; list at $950k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $266k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Arrowhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.