27312 Little Bear · Lake Arrowhead, CA 92317

$949,800

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,178 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2006 0.26 ac lot $227/sqft · 13% below area Est $1097k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience elevated mountain living in this stunning Lake Arrowhead retreat, complete with coveted lake rights and an unbeatable location just a short stroll to Blue Jay Village shopping, dining, and the post office. Built in 2006, this expansive 4,178 SF residence offers 4 bedrooms, 4.5 bathrooms, a versatile den ideal as a 5th bedroom or home office, and a 2 car attached garage, an exceptional blend of space, comfort, and lifestyle in the San Bernardino Mountains. Step inside to discover a thoughtfully designed interior featuring two luxurious primary suites, each with spacious walk-in closets and spa inspired Jacuzzi soaking tubs, perfect for unwinding after a day in the mountains. The gourmet kitchen is both stylish and functional, showcasing a large center island, double oven, wine cooler, abundant cabinetry, and a walk-in pantry, ideal for entertaining and everyday living alike. Composite laminate flooring flows throughout the home, complemented by ceiling fans in every room for year round comfort. Dual zone air conditioning for both upstairs and downstairs levels adds a rare and valuable touch of modern convenience at this elevation. Designed with both comfort and peace of mind in mind, the home includes a full whole home generator, perfect for mountain weather, along with a generously sized laundry room complete with a built in sink and ample cabinetry. The property has been meticulously maintained and thoughtfully upgraded throughout. Nestled within the highly sought after Little Bear tract, known for its serene setting, towering pines, and low density charm, this home offers close proximity to Lake Arrowhead Village. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence, a luxurious vacation escape, or an income producing rental, this property delivers exceptional versatility. Enjoy exclusive Lake Arrowhead lake rights, granting access to boating, swimming, fishing, and year round recreation on one of Southern California’s most private and picturesque lakes.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Whole home generator
• Two primary suites

Tags

• TWO PRIMARY SUITES
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• DUAL ZONE AIR CONDITIONING
• WHOLE HOME GENERATOR
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $950k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-958/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $936k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $747k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $747k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Arrowhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#965 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $266k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($893k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $550k; list at $950k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $746,634 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,096,603
• List price: $949,800
• Delta: -13.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27492 Cedarwood Ct	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	4,115 (-2%)	6mo	$1,175,000	$286	57
161 Rocky Point Rd	0.36mi	4/4.0	3,720 (-11%)	7mo	$2,550,000	$685	55
27369 North Bay Rd	0.28mi	4/3.5	3,902 (-7%)	19mo	$3,650,000	$935	54
137 Old Toll Rd	0.23mi	4/4.0	3,810 (-9%)	21mo	$1,050,000	$276	53
27467 Bay Shore Dr	0.67mi	4/5.0	4,380 (+5%)	12mo	$3,495,000	$798	50
180 Grass Valley Rd #29	0.59mi	4/5.5	4,345 (+4%)	22mo	$852,500	$196	45
27603 Meadow Bay Dr	0.75mi	5/4.5 (+1)	4,111 (-2%)	21mo	$1,750,000	$426	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $109,084
• Equity at exit: $427,071

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $395,266
• Equity at exit: $658,168

Cash invested: $265,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92317

• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,981
• Tax from tax record: −$602 /mo · $7,220/yr
• Insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,568
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,567

Max offer price $935,694

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $458	-5% $189	+0% $-80	+5% $-349	+10% $-618
Rent	-10% $-670	-5% $-375	+0% $-80	+5% $215	+10% $510
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $162	base $-80	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-576

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,450
• Closing costs: $28,494
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27598 Meadow Bay Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	5.0	3.5	4063	$9,000	$2.22	44d	1	0.73mi
943 Nadelhorn Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	5.0	3.5	2890	$3,800	$1.31	44d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $949,800 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $949,800 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $949,800 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $949,800 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $949,800 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $949,800 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $949,800 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $949,800 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $949,800 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,015,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,015,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,015,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,015,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,015,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    listed $1,015,000 Active 1999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1999 chars)

    Experience elevated mountain living in this stunning Lake Arrowhead retreat, complete with coveted lake rights and an unbeatable location just a short stroll to Blue Jay Village shopping, dining, and the post office. Built in 2006, this expansive 4,178 SF residence offers 4 bedrooms, 4.5 bathrooms, a versatile den ideal as a 5th bedroom or home office, and a 2 car attached garage, an exceptional blend of space, comfort, and lifestyle in the San Bernardino Mountains. Step inside to discover a thoughtfully designed interior featuring two luxurious primary suites, each with spacious walk-in closets and spa inspired Jacuzzi soaking tubs, perfect for unwinding after a day in the mountains. The gourmet kitchen is both stylish and functional, showcasing a large center island, double oven, wine cooler, abundant cabinetry, and a walk-in pantry, ideal for entertaining and everyday living alike. Composite laminate flooring flows throughout the home, complemented by ceiling fans in every room for year round comfort. Dual zone air conditioning for both upstairs and downstairs levels adds a rare and valuable touch of modern convenience at this elevation. Designed with both comfort and peace of mind in mind, the home includes a full whole home generator, perfect for mountain weather, along with a generously sized laundry room complete with a built in sink and ample cabinetry. The property has been meticulously maintained and thoughtfully upgraded throughout. Nestled within the highly sought after Little Bear tract, known for its serene setting, towering pines, and low density charm, this home offers close proximity to Lake Arrowhead Village. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence, a luxurious vacation escape, or an income producing rental, this property delivers exceptional versatility. Enjoy exclusive Lake Arrowhead lake rights, granting access to boating, swimming, fishing, and year round recreation on one of Southern California’s most private and picturesque lakes.

16. 2026-02-03
    historical
17. 2025-08-07
    listed $1,190,000 Active
18. 2022-08-26
    historical
19. 2022-08-25
    historical
20. 2022-08-25
    historical
21. 2022-08-25
    historical
22. 2022-08-23
    historical
23. 2018-08-07
    historical
24. 2018-08-06
    soldstatus $550,000 Sold
25. 2018-08-06
    soldstatus $550,000
26. 2018-08-06
    soldstatus $550,000
27. 2018-08-06
    soldstatus $550,000
28. 2018-07-31
    status Pending
29. 2018-07-14
    status Backup Offers Accepted
30. 2018-05-21
    listed $599,000 Active
31. 2018-05-21
    listed $599,000
32. 2018-05-21
    listed $599,000
33. 2017-11-13
    soldstatus $515,000
34. 2017-11-13
    soldstatus $515,000 Closed Sale
35. 2017-11-13
    soldstatus $515,000
36. 2017-11-13
    soldstatus $515,000
37. 2017-10-31
    status Pending Sale
38. 2017-08-15
    price $534,900
39. 2017-07-05
    price $559,900
40. 2017-03-15
    price $594,900
41. 2017-01-17
    listed $534,900
42. 2017-01-17
    listed $534,900
43. 2017-01-12
    listed $624,900 Active
44. 2016-11-19
    historical
45. 2016-08-23
    listed $650,000 Active
46. 2016-08-20
    listed $650,000
47. 2012-07-27
    listed $669,900
48. 2009-10-01
    historical
49. 2009-08-20
    listed $799,000 Active
50. 2009-02-19
    listed $799,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,220 · $602/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,220 · $602/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $89,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,204
• − Property taxes: −$7,220
• − Insurance: −$4,749
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,168
• − Management: −$7,168
• − Depreciation: −$27,631
• Taxable loss: −$17,542
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,210
• After-tax cash flow: $3,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Arrowhead

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #965
• US rank: #24524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment B Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Arrowhead, CA
• City population: 6,246
• Population (ZIP): 708

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 16% German 8% Italian 7%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1650.0% since first listed

39 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $1,015,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $1,190,000 CRMLS
• 2022-08-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-08-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-08-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-08-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-08-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2018-08-07 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2018-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-06 Sold (MLS) $550,000 MRCAOR
• 2018-08-06 Sold (MLS) $550,000 CRMLS
• 2018-08-06 Sold (MLS) $550,000 GPSMLS
• 2018-07-31 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2018-07-14 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2018-05-21 Listed $599,000 MRCAOR
• 2018-05-21 Listed $599,000 CRMLS
• 2018-05-21 Listed $599,000 GPSMLS
• 2017-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $515,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-13 Sold (MLS) $515,000 CRMLS
• 2017-11-13 Sold (MLS) $515,000 CRMLS
• 2017-11-13 Sold (MLS) $515,000 MRCAOR
• 2017-10-31 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-08-15 Price Changed $534,900 CRMLS
• 2017-07-05 Price Changed $559,900 CRMLS
• 2017-03-15 Price Changed $594,900 CRMLS
• 2017-01-17 Listed $534,900 CRMLS
• 2017-01-17 Listed $534,900 MRCAOR
• 2017-01-12 Listed $624,900 CRMLS
• 2016-11-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-08-23 Listed $650,000 CRMLS
• 2016-08-20 Listed $650,000 CRMLS
• 2012-07-27 Listed $669,900 CRMLS
• 2009-10-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-08-20 Listed $799,000 CRMLS
• 2009-02-19 Listed $799,000 CRMLS
• 2008-07-26 Listed $900,000 CRMLS
• 2006-09-01 Listed $900,000 CRMLS
• 2004-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,220 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.