16850 Surrey St

Livonia, MI 48154

$325,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,598/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$443
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-95/mo
• Annual: $-1,144/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (20.1% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $260k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#116 in MI, #2,784 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, health & safety D, commute F.
• Livonia Public Schools School District (urban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #77 of 540 in MI (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Webster Elementary School (math 98% / reading 98%, grade A+, #2 of 1,397 statewide, top 0%, 282 students, 10% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 42% / reading 65%, grade C+, #86 of 493 statewide, top 18%, 656 students, 25% FRL); Stevenson High School (math 51% / reading 72%, grade B-, #66 of 713 statewide, top 9%, 1,636 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 71% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Livonia Public Schools School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.9% in Livonia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.