16850 Surrey St · Livonia, MI 48154

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1959 0.26 ac lot Est $244k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brown and brick ranch in a prime Livonia location, set on a quiet street with mature landscaping and a friendly neighborhood feel. Step inside to an eat-in kitchen, updated with wood shaker-style cabinetry and new stainless steel appliances. A large picture window frames the front yard and brings in plenty of natural light, making it a nice spot for morning coffee. The living room opens up to the backyard through a three-panel glass slider, connecting the interior and exterior living. Out back, a deck overlooks a large fenced yard, low maintenance, and ready for enjoyment. Down the hallway, you'll find three well-proportioned bedrooms and a full bathroom with an updated glass enclosure. A half bath rounds out the main level. The finished basement adds real versatility, anchored by a retro fireplace and ready for your personal touch to make it your own. All of this sits within five minutes of Stevenson High School, Buchanan Elementary, Rotary Park and Trails, the Livonia Recreation Center, and I-96 access.

Key facts

• Large picture window
• Finished basement
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• WOOD SHAKER-STYLE CABINETRY
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE PICTURE WINDOW
• THREE-PANEL GLASS SLIDER
• FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.26 acres (90 x 125)
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Burton Hollow Estates; Sidewalks in community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick exterior; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built with above-grade and below-grade finished areas
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced backyard; Outdoor lighting; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Microwave; Free-standing refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement partially finished; Basement fireplace; Lighting
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.9% in Livonia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#116 in MI, #2,784 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, health & safety D, commute F.
• Livonia Public Schools School District (urban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #77 of 540 in MI (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Webster Elementary School (math 98% / reading 98%, grade A+, #2 of 1,397 statewide, top 0%, 282 students, 10% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 42% / reading 65%, grade C+, #86 of 493 statewide, top 18%, 656 students, 25% FRL); Stevenson High School (math 51% / reading 72%, grade B-, #66 of 713 statewide, top 9%, 1,636 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 71% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Livonia Public Schools School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $259,773 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,750
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16935 Fairfield St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,167 (-7%)	19mo	$228,000	$195	45
18248 Farmington Rd	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,110 (-11%)	7mo	$237,350	$214	42
15694 Edington St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,417 (+13%)	10mo	$263,000	$186	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-58,756
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-59,067
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48154

• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,598 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,693/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,718

Max offer price $308,162

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $-3	+0% $-95	+5% $-187	+10% $-279
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-198	+0% $-95	+5% $7	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $-13	base $-95	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17034 Farmington Rd Livonia, MI	3.0	3.0	1735	$2,700	$1.56	0d	1	0.13mi
18334 Irving St Livonia, MI	3.0	1.0	1151	$2,200	$1.91	0d	1	0.73mi
31015 Dorais St Livonia, MI	3.0	1.5	1229	$2,495	$2.03	18d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $325,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $325,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,693 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,349 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: +$656/yr (+$55/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$3,693
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,494
• − Management: −$2,494
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$6,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,630
• After-tax cash flow: $486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livonia Public Schools School District
• NCES district ID: 2621840
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,268
• Composite: 46.27/100
• National rank: #2480
• State rank: #77 of 540 in MI

Livability — Livonia

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #2784

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Livonia, MI
• City population: 56,806
• Population (ZIP): 36,915

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.93%
• Current HPI: 192.3426
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $325,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-04 Listed $325,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,693 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.