5903 Shadow Creek Ct

Baytown, TX 77523

$252,500D+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,305 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Pending · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,521/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,324
• Tax + insurance: −$696
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-58/mo
• Annual: $-694/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $70,700

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $252k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-694/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (0.2% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clark El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 683 students, 63% FRL); E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?