5903 Shadow Creek Ct · Baytown, TX 77523

$252,500

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,305 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2007 7,143 sqft lot Est $307k · 18% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

DID NOT FLOOD! This spacious 5 bedroom home is waiting for you! Your family will appreciate all the space for them here - inside and in the backyard also! Home has formal dining, breakfast, kitchen, living, guest room, and a full bath downstairs. Kitchen has beautiful stacked stone style backsplash, and quartz countertops. Downstairs has wood look laminate. Upstairs you will find a very large owners suite with private bathroom, 3 more generous size bedrooms and a full bathroom. All this on a quiet cul-de-sac lot in Chambers County. Don't miss out!

Key facts

• 7,143 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association (PAMG) with an annual fee of $350

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2007; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (17x14); Bedrooms on second floor (12x12, 12x12); Bedroom on first floor (11x10)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Tub with shower; Walk-in pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-694/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clark El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 683 students, 63% FRL); E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,290 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,565
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5903 Shadow Creek Ct	0.00mi	5/3.0	2,305 (0%)	1mo	$252,500	$110	99
10502 Devinwood Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,403 (+4%)	22mo	$275,000	$114	54
10514 Lauren Creek Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,020 (-12%)	4mo	$266,800	$132	52
113 Staples Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,344 (+2%)	20mo	$265,000	$113	50
6702 Chartrese Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,184 (-5%)	10mo	$315,000	$144	45
3806 September Dr	0.74mi	5/3.0	2,400 (+4%)	23mo	$331,000	$138	39
10022 Crystal Blvd	0.61mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,142 (-7%)	19mo	$319,990	$149	37
6726 Haider Ave	0.71mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,027 (-12%)	16mo	$269,900	$133	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-43,302
• Equity at exit: $37,649

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-37,106
• Equity at exit: $21,832

Cash invested: $70,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,521 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,324
• Tax from tax record: −$591 /mo · $7,090/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,594

Max offer price $242,290

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $85	-5% $14	+0% $-58	+5% $-129	+10% $-201
Rent	-10% $-257	-5% $-157	+0% $-58	+5% $42	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $6	base $-58	+0.5pp $-123	+1.0pp $-190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,125
• Closing costs: $7,575
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5831 Dylan Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2959	$1,400	$0.47	45d	1	0.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   price $252,500
3. 2026-02-27
   listed $262,500 Active
4. 2021-01-19
   soldstatus
5. 2021-01-14
   soldstatus Sold 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   DID NOT FLOOD! This spacious 5 bedroom home is waiting for you! Your family will appreciate all the space for them here - inside and in the backyard also! Home has formal dining, breakfast, kitchen, living, guest room, and a full bath downstairs. Kitchen has beautiful stacked stone style backsplash, and quartz countertops. Downstairs has wood look laminate. Upstairs you will find a very large owners suite with private bathroom, 3 more generous size bedrooms and a full bathroom. All this on a quiet cul-de-sac lot in Chambers County. Don't miss out!

6. 2020-12-19
   status Pending 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   DID NOT FLOOD! This spacious 5 bedroom home is waiting for you! Your family will appreciate all the space for them here - inside and in the backyard also! Home has formal dining, breakfast, kitchen, living, guest room, and a full bath downstairs. Kitchen has beautiful stacked stone style backsplash, and quartz countertops. Downstairs has wood look laminate. Upstairs you will find a very large owners suite with private bathroom, 3 more generous size bedrooms and a full bathroom. All this on a quiet cul-de-sac lot in Chambers County. Don't miss out!

7. 2020-12-09
   status Option Pending 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   DID NOT FLOOD! This spacious 5 bedroom home is waiting for you! Your family will appreciate all the space for them here - inside and in the backyard also! Home has formal dining, breakfast, kitchen, living, guest room, and a full bath downstairs. Kitchen has beautiful stacked stone style backsplash, and quartz countertops. Downstairs has wood look laminate. Upstairs you will find a very large owners suite with private bathroom, 3 more generous size bedrooms and a full bathroom. All this on a quiet cul-de-sac lot in Chambers County. Don't miss out!

8. 2020-12-04
   listed $215,000 Active 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   DID NOT FLOOD! This spacious 5 bedroom home is waiting for you! Your family will appreciate all the space for them here - inside and in the backyard also! Home has formal dining, breakfast, kitchen, living, guest room, and a full bath downstairs. Kitchen has beautiful stacked stone style backsplash, and quartz countertops. Downstairs has wood look laminate. Upstairs you will find a very large owners suite with private bathroom, 3 more generous size bedrooms and a full bathroom. All this on a quiet cul-de-sac lot in Chambers County. Don't miss out!

9. 2011-03-29
   soldstatus 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   Fannie Mae Acquired property. This large 2 story brick home features 5 large bedrooms plus 3 baths! Home features large kitchen with attached breakfast area. Home has large formal dining room for all your family gatherings. The home has 1 bedroom plus 1 bath downstairs along with large den. Large master bedroom upstairs. The master bath features large garden tub plus seperate shower. The home has large walk-in closets. The home has smalled covered patio.

10. 2011-01-22
    historical 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Fannie Mae Acquired property. This large 2 story brick home features 5 large bedrooms plus 3 baths! Home features large kitchen with attached breakfast area. Home has large formal dining room for all your family gatherings. The home has 1 bedroom plus 1 bath downstairs along with large den. Large master bedroom upstairs. The master bath features large garden tub plus seperate shower. The home has large walk-in closets. The home has smalled covered patio.

11. 2010-12-13
    listed $119,900 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Fannie Mae Acquired property. This large 2 story brick home features 5 large bedrooms plus 3 baths! Home features large kitchen with attached breakfast area. Home has large formal dining room for all your family gatherings. The home has 1 bedroom plus 1 bath downstairs along with large den. Large master bedroom upstairs. The master bath features large garden tub plus seperate shower. The home has large walk-in closets. The home has smalled covered patio.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,090 · $591/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,090 · $591/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,144
• − Property taxes: −$7,090
• − Insurance: −$1,262
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,420
• − Management: −$2,420
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$7,345
• Taxable loss: −$4,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,147
• After-tax cash flow: $454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+110.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $252,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $262,500 HARMLS
• 2021-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-01-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-12-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-12-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-12-04 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2011-03-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-01-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-12-13 Listed $119,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,090 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.