445 Kaiolu St #604

Urban Honolulu, HI 96815

$254,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 456 sqft · Built 1955 · Condo · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,579/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$1,113
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-707/mo
• Annual: $-8,489/yr
• Cap rate: 3.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.87%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $71,120

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $254k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-707 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (49.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $254k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: President Thomas Jefferson Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #73 of 183 statewide, top 41%, 340 students, 55% FRL); President George Washington Middle School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #17 of 42 statewide, top 39%, 569 students, 61% FRL); Kaimuki High School (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #35 of 43 statewide, top 86%, 620 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 39% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; HOA is 43% of rent; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 819 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,638 units permitted in Honolulu County in 2024 (793 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Honolulu County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.5% in Urban Honolulu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?