445 Kaiolu St #604 · Urban Honolulu, HI 96815

$254,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 456 sqft · Condo public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1955 $557/sqft · 7% above area Est $237k · 7% over $1113/mo HOA · 43% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully remodeled Waikiki condo at Rosalei! Welcome home to this beautifully refreshed 6th-floor condo in the heart of Waikiki. This turn-key condo features modern updates throughout, efficient use of space, and a clean, move-in-ready feel. Ideal for an owner-occupant, second home, or long-term rental investment. Enjoy the convenience of a secured building with pool, BBQ area, and community laundry. Rosalei is a classic Waikiki building located at 445 Kaiolu Street, with 160 units across 13 floors and studio-to-1-bedroom floor plans. Nearby highlights include International Market Place, approximately 0.4 miles away; Waikiki Beach, approximately 0.5 miles away; and Fort DeRussy, approximately

Key facts

• Community laundry
• Secured building
• Bbq area

Tags

• REMODELED WAIKIKI CONDO
• SECURED BUILDING
• POOL
• BBQ AREA
• COMMUNITY LAUNDRY
• CLASSIC WAIKIKI BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Maintenance expense: $1,113.85
• HOA & community: Association covers common areas, cable TV, electricity, hot water, internet, sewer and water; On-site management; Community amenities include barbecue, community pool, conference/meeting room, laundry facilities, recreation area and trash chute

Exterior

• Security: Key card entry
• Home design: Condominium in building 'Rosalei Ltd'; Entry on level 6; Concrete construction
• Construction: Concrete construction; Built or effectively updated in 2025
• Exterior features: Heated pool; Key card entry; Has view; Fee simple land tenure; X2 - Apartment precinct zoning

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Excellent condition; updated/remodeled

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-695 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (48.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $254k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (48.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.5% in Urban Honolulu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: President Thomas Jefferson Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #73 of 183 statewide, top 41%, 340 students, 55% FRL); President George Washington Middle School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #17 of 42 statewide, top 39%, 569 students, 61% FRL); Kaimuki High School (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #35 of 43 statewide, top 86%, 620 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 39% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,638 units permitted in Honolulu County in 2024 (793 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Honolulu County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; HOA is 43% of rent; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,192 (48.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.67%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,670
• List price: $254,000
• Delta: 7.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.74% appreciation · 6.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-8,405
• Equity at exit: $110,550

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $50,893
• Equity at exit: $167,578

Cash invested: $71,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96815

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,595 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $861/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$1,113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-695

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,474

Max offer price $131,192

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-551	-5% $-623	+0% $-695	+5% $-767	+10% $-839
Rent	-10% $-900	-5% $-798	+0% $-695	+5% $-593	+10% $-490
Rate	-1.0pp $-567	-0.5pp $-631	base $-695	+0.5pp $-761	+1.0pp $-828

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,500
• Closing costs: $7,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
440 Olohana St Unit 1327703P Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	355	$4,055	$11.42	13d	1	0.17mi
440 Olohana St Unit 1327711P Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	355	$3,741	$10.54	4d	1	0.17mi
242 Kaiulani Ave Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	253	$1,250	$4.94	25d	1	0.44mi
242 Kaʻiulani Ave Unit 4 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	253	$1,200	$4.74	25d	1	0.44mi
232 Kaiulani Ave Honolulu, HI	3.0	1.0	656	$3,088	$4.71	25d	8	0.44mi
2442 Tusitala St Apt 103 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	300	$1,900	$6.33	45d	1	0.54mi
249 Kapili St Unit 1 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	290	$1,350	$4.66	23d	1	0.57mi
249 Kapili St #101 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	225	$1,500	$6.67	25d	1	0.57mi
2509 Ala Wai Blvd Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	215	$1,725	$8.02	25d	2	0.65mi
2509 Ala Wai Blvd #503 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	215	$1,750	$8.14	5d	1	0.65mi
902 University Ave Unit C Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0	415	$2,318	$5.58	25d	1	0.65mi
234 Ohua Ave #217 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	257	$1,550	$6.03	25d	1	0.67mi
300 Wai Nani Way Unit 1808 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	321	$1,700	$5.30	45d	1	0.75mi
2572 Lemon Rd Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	398	$2,597	$6.53	5d	3	0.84mi
234 Hua AVE Unit 103 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	257	$1,550	$6.03	5d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,113 · $13,356/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $254,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $259,000 Active 785-char remark
18. 2026-04-06
    historical
19. 2026-02-21
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-02-16
    price $279,999
21. 2026-02-02
    price $284,999
22. 2026-01-20
    price $288,000
23. 2025-12-06
    price $290,000
24. 2025-11-21
    price $293,000
25. 2025-09-04
    price $296,000
26. 2025-08-19
    price $293,000
27. 2025-08-13
    price $295,000
28. 2025-06-11
    price $300,000
29. 2025-05-22
    price $310,000
30. 2025-04-30
    price $320,000
31. 2025-04-04
    listed $325,000 Active
32. 2025-03-28
    historical
33. 2025-03-06
    listed $325,000 Active
34. 2024-12-24
    soldstatus $250,000 Closed
35. 2024-11-02
    historical Active Under Contract
36. 2024-11-01
    listed $325,000 Active
37. 2006-05-01
    soldstatus $100,000
38. 2005-05-10
    soldstatus $189,000
39. 1998-04-27
    soldstatus $14,000
40. 1996-03-22
    soldstatus $20,000
41. 1988-04-14
    soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $861 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $861 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AO · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,228
• − Property taxes: −$861
• − Insurance: −$2,738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,491
• − Management: −$2,491
• − HOA: −$13,356
• − Depreciation: −$7,389
• Taxable loss: −$12,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,980
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Urban Honolulu

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urban Honolulu, HI
• County: Honolulu County · 963,448 people
• City population: 309,956
• Metro: Urban Honolulu, HI
• Population (ZIP): 27,530
• Household income: $77,096
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2422.0

Population outlook (Honolulu County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,072,641 people
• By 2030: 1,110,460 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,181,593 · +10.2%
• By 2050: 1,257,584 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 1,501,120 · +39.9%
• By 2100: 1,764,430 · +64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 41% White 35% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Pacific Islander 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 15% Chinese 5% Korean 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Honolulu

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.6) · D 59.9% · R 38.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: 41.1pp · 2024: 21.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.6 2020: D+26.9 2016: D+29.9 2012: D+39.1 2008: D+41.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.74%
• Current HPI: 291.9404
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.00%
• Metro: Urban Honolulu, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+605.6% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $254,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $259,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — HiCentral MLS
• 2026-02-21 Contingent — HiCentral MLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $279,999 HiCentral MLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $284,999 HiCentral MLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $288,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $290,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $293,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $296,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $293,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $295,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $300,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $310,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $320,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $325,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2025-03-28 Listing Removed — HiCentral MLS
• 2025-03-06 Listed $325,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2024-12-24 Sold (MLS) $250,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2024-11-02 Contingent — HiCentral MLS
• 2024-11-01 Listed $325,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2006-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records
• 1998-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1988-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $861 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.