7746 Number Four Rd

Croghan, NY 13367

$179,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,053/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$369
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-481/mo
• Annual: $-5,772/yr
• Cap rate: 3.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.46%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-481 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (47.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (41.5% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $95k (47.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#975 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Beaver River Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #458 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beaver River Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 413 students, 47% FRL); Beaver River Middle School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #448 of 729 statewide, top 63%, 192 students, 53% FRL); Beaver River Senior High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 266 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 30% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.