106 Preston Trl

San Marcos, TX 78666

$229,000D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,510 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 140 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,843/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$580
• HOA: −$55
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-380/mo
• Annual: $-4,560/yr
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.11%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (19.5% below list).
• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blanco Vista El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Laura B Wallace Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 789 students, 53% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1146 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?