2895 Co Rd 1718

Holly Pond, AL 35083

$210,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,545/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-231/mo
• Annual: $-2,772/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#326 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Cullman County (rural): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #49 of 129 in AL (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Cullman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $210k implies a 509% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Holly Pond — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.