4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,858 sqft ·
Built 1975
· Townhouse
· Active
· 13 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,627/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,982
Tax + insurance
−$630
HOA
−$550
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$972
Net cashflow
$493/mo
Annual
$5,918/yr
Cap rate
7.86%
Cash-on-cash
5.59%
DSCR
1.25
1% rule
1.22%
Cash to close
$105,840
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $378k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $493 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $378k).
Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 55/100 on livability (#871 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Orange Unified (urban): math 39% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #127 of 517 in CA (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Fairhaven Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 445 students, 64% FRL); Portola Middle (597 students, 91% FRL); Orange High (math 19% / reading 48%, grade F, #656 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 1,807 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 38% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $215k; list at $378k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Ana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2YX3N7890XVWW0
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29