4953 Spiller Dr

Lumberton, TX 77657

$255,000C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,312 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Pending · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,434/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$437
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $149/mo
• Annual: $1,783/yr
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.50%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (4.5% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.