4953 Spiller Dr · Lumberton, TX 77657

$255,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1992 1.00 ac lot $110/sqft · 39% below area Est $420k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living right outside of town! This super cool home sits on an acre of land, it is completely updated with all the modern finishes. There is a very spacious living area with nice an big kitchen.

Key facts

• Acre of land
• Spacious living area
• Big kitchen

Tags

• ACRE OF LAND
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• BIG KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.50%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $419,900
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -39.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-31,814
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-15,339
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,434 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,974/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,246

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6395 Jenny Ln Lumberton, TX	4.0	2.0	2274	$2,800	$1.23	23d	1	1.05mi
322 N Lhs Dr Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1664	$1,500	$0.90	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-30
   statusdays on market $255,000 Pending 91 DOM
2. 2026-04-20
   price $255,000 203-char remark

   Show marketing remark (203 chars)

   Country living right outside of town! This super cool home sits on an acre of land, it is completely updated with all the modern finishes. There is a very spacious living area with nice an big kitchen.

3. 2026-02-28
   listed $259,900 Active 203-char remark

   Show marketing remark (203 chars)

   Country living right outside of town! This super cool home sits on an acre of land, it is completely updated with all the modern finishes. There is a very spacious living area with nice an big kitchen.

4. 2025-12-06
   price $265,000
5. 2025-01-02
   soldstatus
6. 2025-01-02
   soldstatus
7. 2025-01-02
   soldstatus
8. 2024-12-23
   soldstatus Closed
9. 2024-12-05
   status Pending
10. 2024-11-13
    price $95,000
11. 2024-10-15
    listed $125,000 Active
12. 2024-04-30
    soldstatus
13. 2018-02-02
    soldstatus
14. 2017-01-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,974 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$693/yr (+$58/mo · 17.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,974
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,337
• − Management: −$2,337
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$2,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$579
• After-tax cash flow: $2,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lumberton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,996
• Composite: 43.2/100
• National rank: #3063
• State rank: #173 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• City population: 22,258
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+104.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $255,000 BBOR
• 2026-02-28 Listed $259,900 BBOR
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $265,000 BBOR
• 2025-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-12-23 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2024-12-05 Pending — BBOR
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $95,000 BBOR
• 2024-10-15 Listed $125,000 BBOR
• 2024-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,974 · +271.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.