12 SE 15th St

Concordia, MO 64020

$224,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Pending · 162 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax + insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-224/mo
• Annual: $-2,691/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $62,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $224k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-224 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (33.0% below list).
• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#207 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Concordia R-II (rural): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #109 of 324 in MO (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Concordia Elem. (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #611 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 276 students, 37% FRL); Concordia High (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 191 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.