12 SE 15th St · Concordia, MO 64020

$224,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 162 Days on market

Built 1967 0.31 ac lot Est $209k · 7% over ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully designed home located at the edge of town, offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Nestled at the quiet end of the road, the property enjoys serene country views that create a peaceful retreat from the bustle of daily life. Inside, a huge family room provides ample space for gatherings and relaxation, while three bedrooms make the layout both functional and inviting. The home features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and timeless elegance to the living spaces. For those who value storage and flexibility, the property includes a large detached garage as well as an attached single-car garage, making it ideal for projects, vehicles, or extra space. This home combines modern design with country tranquility, perfect for anyone seeking a quiet lifestyle with room to grow.

Key facts

• Huge family room
• Hardwood floors
• Serene country views

Tags

• SERENE COUNTRY VIEWS
• HUGE FAMILY ROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE DETACHED GARAGE
• ATTACHED SINGLE-CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached and detached garage options; Garage faces front; 3-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Ranch floor plan; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; City lot inside city limits; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator; Gas range; Water softener; Ceramic tile and linoleum in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; One bathroom with shower over tub (main level); One bathroom with shower only (lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling (central air)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Kitchen island; Thermal windows; Kitchen/dining combo; Family room on main level; Sun room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room off the kitchen; Linoleum flooring in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $224k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-224 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#207 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Concordia R-II (rural): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #109 of 324 in MO (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Concordia Elem. (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #611 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 276 students, 37% FRL); Concordia High (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 191 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $150,000 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,076
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 SE 15th St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,596 (0%)	1mo	$224,000	$140	99
311 SW 12th Ter	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,563 (-2%)	11mo	$204,900	$131	73
1401 S Saint Louis St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-3%)	16mo	$225,000	$145	73
1105 S Gordon St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,435 (-10%)	11mo	$249,900	$174	58
1010 S Saint Louis St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,698 (+6%)	16mo	$195,000	$115	57
1014 S Maple St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,483 (-7%)	3mo	$193,000	$130	56
1211 S Bismark St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-11%)	22mo	$219,500	$155	53
1211 S Main St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,360 (-15%)	13mo	$175,000	$129	46
801 S Saint Louis St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,472 (-8%)	11mo	$129,000	$88	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $107,653
• Equity at exit: $201,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $328,126
• Equity at exit: $435,183

Cash invested: $62,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64020

• Home prices YoY: 22.2%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,694/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,784

Max offer price $184,390

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-97	-5% $-161	+0% $-224	+5% $-288	+10% $-351
Rent	-10% $-343	-5% $-283	+0% $-224	+5% $-165	+10% $-106
Rate	-1.0pp $-111	-0.5pp $-167	base $-224	+0.5pp $-282	+1.0pp $-341

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,000
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
503 S Bismark St Concordia, MO	3.0	1.5	1600	$1,500	$0.94	45d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-04
   price $224,000 838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully designed home located at the edge of town, offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Nestled at the quiet end of the road, the property enjoys serene country views that create a peaceful retreat from the bustle of daily life. Inside, a huge family room provides ample space for gatherings and relaxation, while three bedrooms make the layout both functional and inviting. The home features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and timeless elegance to the living spaces. For those who value storage and flexibility, the property includes a large detached garage as well as an attached single-car garage, making it ideal for projects, vehicles, or extra space. This home combines modern design with country tranquility, perfect for anyone seeking a quiet lifestyle with room to grow.

4. 2026-04-04
   price $224,000

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully designed home located at the edge of town, offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Nestled at the quiet end of the road, the property enjoys serene country views that create a peaceful retreat from the bustle of daily life. Inside, a huge family room provides ample space for gatherings and relaxation, while three bedrooms make the layout both functional and inviting. The home features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and timeless elegance to the living spaces. For those who value storage and flexibility, the property includes a large detached garage as well as an attached single-car garage, making it ideal for projects, vehicles, or extra space. This home combines modern design with country tranquility, perfect for anyone seeking a quiet lifestyle with room to grow.

5. 2026-03-05
   status Active 838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully designed home located at the edge of town, offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Nestled at the quiet end of the road, the property enjoys serene country views that create a peaceful retreat from the bustle of daily life. Inside, a huge family room provides ample space for gatherings and relaxation, while three bedrooms make the layout both functional and inviting. The home features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and timeless elegance to the living spaces. For those who value storage and flexibility, the property includes a large detached garage as well as an attached single-car garage, making it ideal for projects, vehicles, or extra space. This home combines modern design with country tranquility, perfect for anyone seeking a quiet lifestyle with room to grow.

6. 2026-02-22
   status Active
7. 2025-12-26
   historical Active Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully designed home located at the edge of town, offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Nestled at the quiet end of the road, the property enjoys serene country views that create a peaceful retreat from the bustle of daily life. Inside, a huge family room provides ample space for gatherings and relaxation, while three bedrooms make the layout both functional and inviting. The home features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and timeless elegance to the living spaces. For those who value storage and flexibility, the property includes a large detached garage as well as an attached single-car garage, making it ideal for projects, vehicles, or extra space. This home combines modern design with country tranquility, perfect for anyone seeking a quiet lifestyle with room to grow.

8. 2025-12-26
   status Pending 838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully designed home located at the edge of town, offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Nestled at the quiet end of the road, the property enjoys serene country views that create a peaceful retreat from the bustle of daily life. Inside, a huge family room provides ample space for gatherings and relaxation, while three bedrooms make the layout both functional and inviting. The home features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and timeless elegance to the living spaces. For those who value storage and flexibility, the property includes a large detached garage as well as an attached single-car garage, making it ideal for projects, vehicles, or extra space. This home combines modern design with country tranquility, perfect for anyone seeking a quiet lifestyle with room to grow.

9. 2025-12-10
   listed $229,000 Active 838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully designed home located at the edge of town, offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Nestled at the quiet end of the road, the property enjoys serene country views that create a peaceful retreat from the bustle of daily life. Inside, a huge family room provides ample space for gatherings and relaxation, while three bedrooms make the layout both functional and inviting. The home features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and timeless elegance to the living spaces. For those who value storage and flexibility, the property includes a large detached garage as well as an attached single-car garage, making it ideal for projects, vehicles, or extra space. This home combines modern design with country tranquility, perfect for anyone seeking a quiet lifestyle with room to grow.

10. 2025-12-10
    listed $229,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully designed home located at the edge of town, offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Nestled at the quiet end of the road, the property enjoys serene country views that create a peaceful retreat from the bustle of daily life. Inside, a huge family room provides ample space for gatherings and relaxation, while three bedrooms make the layout both functional and inviting. The home features beautiful hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and timeless elegance to the living spaces. For those who value storage and flexibility, the property includes a large detached garage as well as an attached single-car garage, making it ideal for projects, vehicles, or extra space. This home combines modern design with country tranquility, perfect for anyone seeking a quiet lifestyle with room to grow.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,694 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$478/yr (+$40/mo · 28.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$1,694
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable loss: −$6,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,622
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Concordia R-II
• NCES district ID: 2910080
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,584
• Composite: 36.98/100
• National rank: #4527
• State rank: #109 of 324 in MO

Livability — Concordia

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #10455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concordia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,928

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,118 people
• By 2030: 29,993 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 27,436 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 24,585 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 18,426 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 12,897 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.9) · D 24.9% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -48.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.9 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.33%
• Current HPI: 277.29
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $224,000 WCAR
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $224,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — WCAR
• 2026-02-22 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Pending — WCAR
• 2025-12-10 Listed $229,000 WCAR
• 2025-12-10 Listed $229,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,694 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.