4986 City View Ave

Lackawanna, NY 14219

$350,000D-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · Built 1997 · MultiFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,182/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$756
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-930/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-930/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (9.1% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $318k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Orchard Park Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #158 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Windom Elementary School (math 53% / reading 68%, grade B-, #741 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 611 students, 29% FRL); Orchard Park Middle School (math 26% / reading 69%, grade C-, #306 of 729 statewide, top 43%, 1,059 students, 15% FRL); Orchard Park High School (math 100% / reading 87%, grade A+, #141 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 1,385 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.