4986 City View Ave · Lackawanna, NY 14219

$350,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1997 0.28 ac lot Est $320k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Meticulously maintained 3/2 double located on a quiet dead-end street within the highly desirable Orchard Park School District. This versatile property is perfect for owner-occupants or investors alike. The lower unit features a spacious, light-filled living room, a fully applianced kitchen, and an updated full bath. Three generously sized bedrooms and durable vinyl flooring throughout add to the appeal. The upper unit offers a bright and airy living room with soaring cathedral ceilings, a fully applianced kitchen, and a sliding glass door leading to a private balcony, perfect for relaxing. Two bedrooms, including one with cathedral ceilings, a full bath, and a separate laundry room complet

Key facts

• Updated full bath
• Private balcony
• Large basement

Tags

• ORCHARD PARK SCHOOL DISTRICT
• FULLY APPLIANCED KITCHEN
• UPDATED FULL BATH
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-930/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Orchard Park Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #158 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Windom Elementary School (math 53% / reading 68%, grade B-, #741 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 611 students, 29% FRL); Orchard Park Middle School (math 26% / reading 69%, grade C-, #306 of 729 statewide, top 43%, 1,059 students, 15% FRL); Orchard Park High School (math 100% / reading 87%, grade A+, #141 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 1,385 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $318,200 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,680
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4986 City View Ave	0.00mi	5/2.0	2,160 (0%)	1mo	$398,000	$184	99
4927 Milestrip Rd	0.36mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,212 (+2%)	14mo	$300,000	$136	59
4934 Lynwood Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,080 (-4%)	13mo	$350,000	$168	49
5054 Richmond Ave	0.73mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,132 (-1%)	17mo	$315,000	$148	44
2200 Abbott Rd	0.75mi	5/3.0	1,930 (-11%)	10mo	$250,000	$130	35
4613 Milestrip Rd	0.67mi	5/2.0	2,426 (+12%)	17mo	$330,000	$136	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-61,499
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-59,285
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14219

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 18.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$610 /mo · $7,320/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,280

Max offer price $336,304

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $22	+0% $-78	+5% $-177	+10% $-276
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-203	+0% $-78	+5% $48	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $11	base $-78	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-260

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1.5	$1,591
1× unit	2	1.5	$1,591
Total (2 units)			$3,182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   listed $350,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,320 · $610/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,320 · $610/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$7,320
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,055
• − Management: −$3,055
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$6,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,628
• After-tax cash flow: $698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orchard Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621900
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,354
• Composite: 57.97/100
• National rank: #1039
• State rank: #158 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lackawanna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #4026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 20,661
• Population (ZIP): 10,894

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.33%
• Current HPI: 332.7314
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $350,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,320 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.