21320 N 56th St #2021

Phoenix, AZ 85054

$425,000D-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,778/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$502
• HOA: −$405
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-941/mo
• Annual: $-11,290/yr
• Cap rate: 3.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.82%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-941 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (39.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (34.6% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $259k (39.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?