21320 N 56th St #2021 · Phoenix, AZ 85054

$425,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Condo public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2007 $302/sqft · 25% below area Est $563k · 25% under $405/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful condo in coveted Bella Monte at Desert Ridge! All in one level living includes a private garage and offers exceptional privacy with no neighbors below and only one shared wall. Ideally located just a short walk to one of the community's sparkling pools! The 0pen layout features a spacious kitchen with granite countertops, wood cabinetry and included washer/dryer & refrigerator! The private balcony provides a perfect space to relax. Owner's suite boasts a large closet, dual vanities and walk-in shower. A/C replaced just 3 years ago! Enjoy access to three pool and spa complexes, a fitness center, built-in BBQ areas and beautifully maintained grounds. Within walking distance to Desert Ridge Marketplace & High Street, offering an abundance of shopping, dining, & entertainment!

Key facts

• $405 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-933 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (38.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (34.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,149 (38.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.74%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $563,266
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -24.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.4% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-71,738
• Equity at exit: $132,062

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-104,801
• Equity at exit: $165,827

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85054

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,788 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,101/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$405
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $-933

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,969

Max offer price $260,149

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21155 N 56th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	948	$2,241	$2.36	2d	16	0.12mi
5550 E Deer Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1160	$2,438	$2.10	2d	29	0.16mi
21021 N 56th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1015	$2,395	$2.36	18d	1	0.19mi
21320 N 56th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1790	$3,300	$1.84	3d	5	0.20mi
21320 N 56th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1646	$2,900	$1.76	18d	6	0.20mi
5350 E Deer Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1294	$3,648	$2.82	44d	2	0.30mi
5350 E Deer Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1098	$3,800	$3.46	5d	4	0.30mi
5350 E Deer Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1559	$2,750	$1.76	8d	6	0.30mi
5450 E Deer Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1355	$4,250	$3.14	44d	2	0.30mi
5450 E Deer Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$5,000	$4.42	4d	6	0.30mi
5350 E Deer Valley Dr Unit 1545730P Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1237	$2,341	$1.89	14d	1	0.36mi
20700 N 55th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1020	$3,365	$3.30	24d	42	0.41mi
5315 E High St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1304	$2,472	$1.90	3d	24	0.48mi
20600 N 55th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	1091	$3,965	$3.63	1d	44	0.52mi
21022 N 59th Run Phoenix, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1734	$3,168	$1.83	3d	19	0.55mi
21611 N 48th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,650	$1.74	22d	1	0.81mi
4900 E Deer Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1404	$2,928	$2.08	4d	9	0.82mi
4847 E Abraham Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1540	$4,500	$2.92	44d	1	0.84mi
4723 E Weaver Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$2,595	$1.56	14d	1	0.98mi
4726 E Mossman Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1610	$2,500	$1.55	8d	1	1.01mi
4632 E Mossman Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$3,800	$2.50	44d	1	1.06mi
21150 N Tatum Blvd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1136	$1,938	$1.71	2d	26	1.10mi
21624 N 46th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1540	$3,200	$2.08	5d	1	1.11mi
4517 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$3,100	$1.86	14d	1	1.17mi
4509 E Lone Cactus Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$4,500	$2.71	44d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $405 · $4,860/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $425,000 Pending 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $425,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $425,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $425,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $425,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $425,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 52 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   status $425,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 51 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-05-08
    price $447,000 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Beautiful condo in coveted Bella Monte at Desert Ridge! All in one level living includes a private garage and offers exceptional privacy with no neighbors below and only one shared wall. Ideally located just a short walk to one of the community's sparkling pools! The 0pen layout features a spacious kitchen with granite countertops, wood cabinetry and included washer/dryer & refrigerator! The private balcony provides a perfect space to relax. Owner's suite boasts a large closet, dual vanities and walk-in shower. A/C replaced just 3 years ago! Enjoy access to three pool and spa complexes, a fitness center, built-in BBQ areas and beautifully maintained grounds. Within walking distance to Desert Ridge Marketplace & High Street, offering an abundance of shopping, dining, & entertainment!

12. 2026-04-24
    price $449,750 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Beautiful condo in coveted Bella Monte at Desert Ridge! All in one level living includes a private garage and offers exceptional privacy with no neighbors below and only one shared wall. Ideally located just a short walk to one of the community's sparkling pools! The 0pen layout features a spacious kitchen with granite countertops, wood cabinetry and included washer/dryer & refrigerator! The private balcony provides a perfect space to relax. Owner's suite boasts a large closet, dual vanities and walk-in shower. A/C replaced just 3 years ago! Enjoy access to three pool and spa complexes, a fitness center, built-in BBQ areas and beautifully maintained grounds. Within walking distance to Desert Ridge Marketplace & High Street, offering an abundance of shopping, dining, & entertainment!

13. 2026-04-11
    listed $474,900 Active 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Beautiful condo in coveted Bella Monte at Desert Ridge! All in one level living includes a private garage and offers exceptional privacy with no neighbors below and only one shared wall. Ideally located just a short walk to one of the community's sparkling pools! The 0pen layout features a spacious kitchen with granite countertops, wood cabinetry and included washer/dryer & refrigerator! The private balcony provides a perfect space to relax. Owner's suite boasts a large closet, dual vanities and walk-in shower. A/C replaced just 3 years ago! Enjoy access to three pool and spa complexes, a fitness center, built-in BBQ areas and beautifully maintained grounds. Within walking distance to Desert Ridge Marketplace & High Street, offering an abundance of shopping, dining, & entertainment!

14. 2011-03-15
    historical
15. 2010-09-18
    listed $329,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,101 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,101 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$3,101
• − Insurance: −$2,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,676
• − Management: −$2,676
• − HOA: −$4,860
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$18,951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,548
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,346
• Household income: $91,507
• Rent vs Own: 63.1% rent · 36.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 916.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Korean 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Current HPI: 268.253
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+35.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $447,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $449,750 ARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $474,900 ARMLS
• 2011-03-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-09-18 Listed $329,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,101 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.