2523 E Contention Mine Rd #31

Phoenix, AZ 85032

$67,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,807/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $964/mo
• Annual: $11,570/yr
• Cap rate: 23.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.68%
• DSCR: 3.74
• 1% rule: 2.70%
• Cash to close: $18,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $964 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $67k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $65k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Campo Bello Elementary School (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #669 of 1,109 statewide, top 61%, 619 students, 71% FRL); Paradise Valley High School (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #69 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,874 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 29% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 23.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.