2523 E Contention Mine Rd #31 · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$67,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 1995 Good condition 3,100 sqft lot $63/sqft · 25% below area Est $90k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Turn-key and beautiful mobile home in the quiet adult community of El Camino! Great location with one 1 neighbor and guest parking adjacent. The home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, split floorplan. Enjoy the fresh paint, new fridge, newer shingle roof, new water heater and other updated features! The front deck is newer and a bonus shed and garden planter in the back. Water & garbage included in lot rent.

Key facts

• 3,100 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1995

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approx. 3,100 (owner provided); Building area source: Appraiser; Directions: North on Cave Creek, east on Contention Mine Rd, right into mobile home park, lot 31
• HOA & community: Monthly land lease: $475; Association fee includes grounds maintenance; Land lease community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces; 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone back yard; City-maintained road access; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom with full bath

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $964 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $67k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Campo Bello Elementary School (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #669 of 1,109 statewide, top 61%, 619 students, 71% FRL); Paradise Valley High School (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #69 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,874 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 29% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,990 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.68%
• DSCR: 3.74
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,560
• List price: $67,000
• Delta: -25.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2140 E Michigan Ave #35	0.55mi	3/2.0	990 (-6%)	1mo	$98,000	$99	63
18026 N Cave Creek Rd #125	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	1mo	$35,000	$36	57
18026 N Cave Creek Rd #16	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (-10%)	3mo	$49,000	$51	54
17827 N 19th St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,096 (+4%)	12mo	$130,000	$119	50
2034 E Charleston Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+10%)	13mo	$276,000	$239	48
18240 N 21st Dr #86	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (-3%)	14mo	$75,000	$73	46
1939 E Libby St	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-7%)	13mo	$175,000	$179	42
2131 E Union Hills Dr Unit M5	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	12mo	$72,000	$60	38
2027 E Michelle Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+14%)	12mo	$207,500	$173	36
2644 E Kelton Ln	0.61mi	2/1.8 (-1)	932 (-12%)	14mo	$225,900	$242	34
1926 E Grovers Ave	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-12%)	11mo	$260,000	$281	34
1955 E Grovers Ave #17	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	20mo	$90,000	$75	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $45,286
• Equity at exit: $9,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $98,159
• Equity at exit: $5,793

Cash invested: $18,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $964

Break-even live

Break-even rent $586

Max offer price $67,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,750
• Closing costs: $2,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17365 N Cave Creek Rd #124 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1468	$2,299	$1.57	14d	1	0.12mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,625	$2.50	2d	13	0.17mi
17150 N 23rd St #135 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1186	$1,900	$1.60	14d	1	0.24mi
17150 N 23rd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1172	$1,712	$1.46	3d	2	0.29mi
17150 N 23rd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1172	$1,712	$1.46	4d	2	0.29mi
17833 N 26th St Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1220	$2,397	$1.96	1d	1	0.35mi
2150 E Bell Rd #1102 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1462	$1,945	$1.33	14d	1	0.36mi
2602 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,100	$1.47	24d	1	0.40mi
2554 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1118	$2,750	$2.46	24d	1	0.43mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	24d	1	0.45mi
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$1,500	$2.08	3d	7	0.46mi
2067 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	24d	1	0.47mi
16635 N Cave Creek Rd #214 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1134	$1,300	$1.15	19d	1	0.47mi
16801 N 26th St Apt 17 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	24d	1	0.48mi
16627 N 25th St Unit 23 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	765	$1,145	$1.50	24d	1	0.50mi
16602 N 25th St #109 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,224	$1.08	20d	1	0.50mi
16602 N 25th St #109 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,224	$1.08	24d	1	0.50mi
2712 E Juniper Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,435	$1.00	4d	1	0.53mi
2214 E Aire Libre Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,080	$1.62	5d	1	0.57mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	3d	9	0.59mi
1302 E Aire Libre Ave Unit 104 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,850	$1.48	24d	1	0.60mi
2755 E Michigan Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,700	$2.05	17d	1	0.62mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	21d	1	0.65mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,159	$1.66	24d	1	0.65mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	575	$942	$1.64	4d	6	0.65mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$829	$1.18	24d	1	0.65mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Apt 310 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	24d	1	0.65mi
2221 E Union Hills Dr #158 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1332	$2,100	$1.58	18d	1	0.66mi
16816 N 29th St Apt 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	7d	1	0.68mi
2854 E Phelps Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,811	$1.22	21d	1	0.70mi
1920 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1391	$2,039	$1.47	2d	3	0.72mi
1920 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1391	$2,149	$1.54	13d	5	0.72mi
1920 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1391	$2,089	$1.50	7d	4	0.72mi
16815 N 29th St Apt 146 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$999	$1.18	24d	1	0.73mi
16815 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,199	$1.41	24d	1	0.75mi
16815 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.23	16d	3	0.75mi
1814 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,637	$1.63	1d	12	0.78mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,955	$2.03	1d	11	0.78mi
16033 N 25th St Unit 114 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	24d	1	0.84mi
17606 N 17th Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1463	$2,300	$1.57	2d	3	0.86mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $67,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $67,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    status Pending 411-char remark
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $67,000 Active 411-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,753
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − Depreciation: −$1,949
• Taxable income: $11,168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,680
• After-tax cash flow: $8,890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This turn-key mobile home in a quiet community is in good condition with recent updates and a fresh paint job, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting — fresh paint improves appearance and value
• Both upgrading appliances — newer appliances improve functionality and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — fresh paint improves appearance and value ↑
• Both upgrading appliances — newer appliances improve functionality and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2887.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $67,000 ARMLS