10490 David Rd

Welsh, LA 70591

$100,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $903/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $-14/mo
• Annual: $-166/yr
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-166/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (9.7% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#189 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Jefferson Davis Parish (town): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #33 of 98 in LA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Jefferson Davis Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson Davis County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.