10490 David Rd · Welsh, LA 70591

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 1960 1.00 ac lot $100/sqft · 41% below area Est $170k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful country living with this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a spacious 1-acre lot. Surrounded by open views and mature trees, this property offers the quiet, rural feel many buyers are looking for while still being just a short drive from town. Inside, you’ll find warm wood accents throughout, including beautiful wood ceilings and trim that add character and charm to the home. The living area features hardwood floors and plenty of natural light, creating a comfortable space to relax or entertain. The kitchen and dining area offer abundant cabinetry, built-in storage, and room for everyday meals or gatherings. The home includes two bedrooms and a full bathroom, along with a dedicated laundry area with additional storage. Outside, you’ll appreciate the open yard, large shade trees, and covered parking area. The generous one-acre lot provides plenty of room for gardening, outdoor activities, or simply enjoying the peaceful countryside. If you’re looking for a cozy home with character and room to spread out, this property is full of potential and ready for its next owner.

Key facts

• Open views
• Wood accents
• Wood ceilings

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• OPEN VIEWS
• MATURE TREES
• WOOD ACCENTS
• WOOD CEILINGS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-166/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#189 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Jefferson Davis Parish (town): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #33 of 98 in LA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Jefferson Davis Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson Davis County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,315 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,064
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -41.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $5,693
• Equity at exit: $39,104

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $28,726
• Equity at exit: $56,051

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70591

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $903 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $432/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $921

Max offer price $97,556

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Active 1126-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1126 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living with this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a spacious 1-acre lot. Surrounded by open views and mature trees, this property offers the quiet, rural feel many buyers are looking for while still being just a short drive from town. Inside, you’ll find warm wood accents throughout, including beautiful wood ceilings and trim that add character and charm to the home. The living area features hardwood floors and plenty of natural light, creating a comfortable space to relax or entertain. The kitchen and dining area offer abundant cabinetry, built-in storage, and room for everyday meals or gatherings. The home includes two bedrooms and a full bathroom, along with a dedicated laundry area with additional storage. Outside, you’ll appreciate the open yard, large shade trees, and covered parking area. The generous one-acre lot provides plenty of room for gardening, outdoor activities, or simply enjoying the peaceful countryside. If you’re looking for a cozy home with character and room to spread out, this property is full of potential and ready for its next owner.

2. 2026-03-17
   status Pending 1126-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1126 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living with this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a spacious 1-acre lot. Surrounded by open views and mature trees, this property offers the quiet, rural feel many buyers are looking for while still being just a short drive from town. Inside, you’ll find warm wood accents throughout, including beautiful wood ceilings and trim that add character and charm to the home. The living area features hardwood floors and plenty of natural light, creating a comfortable space to relax or entertain. The kitchen and dining area offer abundant cabinetry, built-in storage, and room for everyday meals or gatherings. The home includes two bedrooms and a full bathroom, along with a dedicated laundry area with additional storage. Outside, you’ll appreciate the open yard, large shade trees, and covered parking area. The generous one-acre lot provides plenty of room for gardening, outdoor activities, or simply enjoying the peaceful countryside. If you’re looking for a cozy home with character and room to spread out, this property is full of potential and ready for its next owner.

3. 2026-03-12
   listed $100,000 Active 1126-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1126 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living with this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a spacious 1-acre lot. Surrounded by open views and mature trees, this property offers the quiet, rural feel many buyers are looking for while still being just a short drive from town. Inside, you’ll find warm wood accents throughout, including beautiful wood ceilings and trim that add character and charm to the home. The living area features hardwood floors and plenty of natural light, creating a comfortable space to relax or entertain. The kitchen and dining area offer abundant cabinetry, built-in storage, and room for everyday meals or gatherings. The home includes two bedrooms and a full bathroom, along with a dedicated laundry area with additional storage. Outside, you’ll appreciate the open yard, large shade trees, and covered parking area. The generous one-acre lot provides plenty of room for gardening, outdoor activities, or simply enjoying the peaceful countryside. If you’re looking for a cozy home with character and room to spread out, this property is full of potential and ready for its next owner.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $432 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $550 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$118/yr (+$10/mo · 27.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$432
• − Insurance: −$2,002
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$867
• − Management: −$867
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$1,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$442
• After-tax cash flow: $276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Davis Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200810
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -33.00%
• Median HH income: $40,322
• Composite: 30.21/100
• National rank: #6302
• State rank: #33 of 98 in LA

Livability — Welsh

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #189
• US rank: #15036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,635

Population outlook (Jefferson Davis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,015 people
• By 2030: 30,563 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 29,639 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 28,456 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 25,521 · -17.7%
• By 2100: 21,787 · -29.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Two or more races 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 22% Italian 1%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson Davis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.8% · R 79.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -39.7pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+47.6 2008: R+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Current HPI: 174.2929
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Relisted — SWLAR
• 2026-03-17 Pending — SWLAR
• 2026-03-12 Listed $100,000 SWLAR

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $432 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.