The Ellijay Plan

Dallas, GA 30132

$361,900F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,845 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,757/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax + insurance: −$632
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-441/mo
• Annual: $-5,298/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.99%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $106,138

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $362k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-441 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (23.8% below list).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $276k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#192 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Paulding County (suburban): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #33 of 174 in GA (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northside Elementary School (math 30% / reading 28%, grade F, #663 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 644 students, 50% FRL); Lena Mae Moses Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #97 of 470 statewide, top 22%, 907 students, 42% FRL); East Paulding High School (math 11% / reading 31%, grade F, #225 of 424 statewide, top 54%, 1,905 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 841 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,458 units permitted in Paulding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Paulding County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Dallas — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.