The Ellijay Plan · Dallas, GA 30132

$365,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,845 sqft · SingleFamily · 146 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Ellijay welcomes you with a wide foyer and a grand dining room to accommodate get-togethers, while the adjacent kitchen with peninsula overlooks the breakfast area and family room. A study for an in-home office, hobby room, or playroom is standard, with an optional bedroom completing the first floor. Tucked away behind the garage is the stairway leading to a loft area, easy access to a finished storage room with four large bedrooms, each with oversized walk-in closets and a large laundry room conveniently located upstairs. The plan can offer four or five bedrooms and up to four full baths.

Key facts

• Adjacent kitchen
• Family room
• Grand dining room

Tags

• WIDE FOYER
• GRAND DINING ROOM
• ADJACENT KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST AREA
• FAMILY ROOM
• IN-HOME OFFICE

🏗️ New construction. The $365,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $378,093.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $366k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-555 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#192 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Paulding County (suburban): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #33 of 174 in GA (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northside Elementary School (math 30% / reading 28%, grade F, #663 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 644 students, 50% FRL); Lena Mae Moses Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #97 of 470 statewide, top 22%, 907 students, 42% FRL); East Paulding High School (math 11% / reading 31%, grade F, #225 of 424 statewide, top 54%, 1,905 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 1085 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,458 units permitted in Paulding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Paulding County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($322k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,465 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.29%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $378,093
• List price: $365,990
• Delta: -3.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
161 Jones Ridge Dr	0.00mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,845 (0%)	5mo	$459,644	$162	89
209 Jones Rdg	0.00mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,845 (0%)	2mo	$450,751	$158	87
71 Jones Ridge Dr	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,934 (+3%)	10mo	$424,900	$145	74
57 Saddle Brooke Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	3,001 (+6%)	13mo	$295,000	$98	69
54 Fair Meadows Way	0.41mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,922 (+3%)	2mo	$390,000	$133	67
219 Andalusa Ct	0.73mi	4/3.0	3,032 (+7%)	4mo	$480,000	$158	49
198 Huntleigh Shores Ln	0.47mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,200 (+12%)	3mo	$409,900	$128	48
79 Saddle Horn Pl	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,500 (-12%)	10mo	$315,000	$126	47
70 Stallion Run	0.29mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,418 (-15%)	12mo	$334,000	$138	44
34 Hemlock Gln	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,631 (-8%)	16mo	$400,000	$152	40
265 Huntleigh Chase Dr	0.57mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,156 (+11%)	13mo	$429,000	$136	38
121 Birch River Ct	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,516 (-12%)	17mo	$400,000	$159	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-99,597
• Equity at exit: $56,375

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-144,152
• Equity at exit: $32,691

Cash invested: $105,866 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $457,500 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 58 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -16.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30132

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 1085
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,605 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,983
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$473 /mo · $5,671/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,307

Max offer price $297,749

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-294	-5% $-425	+0% $-555	+5% $-686	+10% $-817
Rent	-10% $-761	-5% $-658	+0% $-555	+5% $-452	+10% $-349
Rate	-1.0pp $-365	-0.5pp $-459	base $-555	+0.5pp $-653	+1.0pp $-753

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,523
• Closing costs: $11,343
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Trotter Way Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2504	$2,247	$0.90	2d	1	0.31mi
1033 Saddle Brooke Dr Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2499	$2,165	$0.87	16d	1	0.50mi
219 Andalusa Ct Dallas, GA	4.0	3.0	3032	$3,195	$1.05	184d	1	0.71mi
175 Andalusa Ct Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2249	$2,495	$1.11	126d	1	0.76mi
117 Andalusa Ct Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2333	$2,699	$1.16	146d	1	0.83mi
97 Andalusa Ct Dallas, GA	4.0	3.0	3032	$2,995	$0.99	64d	1	0.86mi
56 Andalusa Ct Dallas, GA	4.0	3.0	2845	$2,700	$0.95	1d	1	0.92mi
56 Andalusa Ct Dallas, GA	4.0	3.0	2845	$2,700	$0.95	53d	1	0.92mi
114 Tannin Ct Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2212	$2,225	$1.01	93d	1	0.98mi
371 Stable View Loop Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2226	$1,965	$0.88	28d	1	1.02mi
42 Kades Cove Dr Dallas, GA	4.0	3.0	2700	$1,970	$0.73	0d	1	1.09mi
620 Stable View Loop Dallas, GA	4.0	2.0	2045	$1,929	$0.94	71d	1	1.14mi
67 Severn Way Dallas, GA	4.0	3.5	2559	$2,250	$0.88	37d	1	1.19mi
576 River Run Dr Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,250	$1.02	184d	1	1.21mi
169 Maxton Ave Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2699	$2,407	$0.89	3d	1	1.33mi
102 Oaktree St Dallas, GA	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,950	$0.93	127d	1	1.35mi
84 Valley View Trl Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2456	$2,300	$0.94	51d	1	1.37mi
84 Valley View Trl Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2456	$2,300	$0.94	56d	1	1.37mi
42 Fox Knoll Trl Dallas, GA	4.0	3.0	2586	$2,500	$0.97	36d	1	1.43mi
198 Blackgum Trce Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2968	$2,707	$0.91	10d	1	1.49mi
198 Blackgum Trce Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2968	$2,707	$0.91	24d	1	1.49mi
490 Silver Oak Dr Dallas, GA	4.0	2.5	2470	$2,436	$0.99	184d	1	1.49mi
252 Fox Knoll Trl Dallas, GA	4.0	3.0	2948	$2,665	$0.90	0d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $361,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (total)
• Utilities: Natural gasElectricCentral air
• Home design: New construction planPlan name: The Ellijay
• Exterior features: Located at 45 Jones Ridge Dr, Dallas, GA 30132

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas, electric, and heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: The Ellijay

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-20
   days on market $365,990 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-09-19
   days on market $365,990 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-09-18
   days on market $365,990 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-09-17
   days on market $365,990 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-09-16
   days on market $365,990 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-09-15
   days on market $365,990 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-09-14
   days on market $365,990 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-09-13
   days on market $365,990 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-09-12
   days on market $365,990 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-09-11
    days on market $365,990 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-09-05
    days on market $365,990 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-09-04
    days on market $365,990 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-09-03
    days on market $365,990 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-08-31
    days on market $365,990 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-08-29
    days on market $365,990 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-08-28
    days on market $365,990 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-08-27
    days on market $365,990 Active 122 DOM
18. 2026-08-25
    days on market $365,990 Active 120 DOM
19. 2026-08-24
    days on market $365,990 Active 119 DOM
20. 2026-08-23
    days on market $365,990 Active 118 DOM
21. 2026-08-22
    days on market $365,990 Active 117 DOM
22. 2026-08-21
    days on market $365,990 Active 116 DOM
23. 2026-08-20
    days on market $365,990 Active 115 DOM
24. 2026-08-19
    days on market $365,990 Active 114 DOM
25. 2026-08-18
    days on market $365,990 Active 113 DOM
26. 2026-08-17
    days on market $365,990 Active 112 DOM
27. 2026-08-16
    days on market $365,990 Active 111 DOM
28. 2026-08-15
    days on market $365,990 Active 110 DOM
29. 2026-08-14
    days on market $365,990 Active 109 DOM
30. 2026-08-13
    days on market $365,990 Active 108 DOM
31. 2026-08-12
    days on market $365,990 Active 107 DOM
32. 2026-08-11
    days on market $365,990 Active 106 DOM
33. 2026-08-10
    price $365,990 Active 105 DOM
34. 2026-08-10
    days on market $361,900 Active 105 DOM
35. 2026-08-09
    days on market $361,900 Active 104 DOM
36. 2026-08-08
    days on market $361,900 Active 103 DOM
37. 2026-08-06
    days on market $361,900 Active 101 DOM
38. 2026-08-05
    days on market $361,900 Active 100 DOM
39. 2026-08-04
    days on market $361,900 Active 99 DOM
40. 2026-08-03
    days on market $361,900 Active 98 DOM
41. 2026-07-31
    days on market $361,900 Active 95 DOM
42. 2026-07-30
    days on market $361,900 Active 93 DOM
43. 2026-07-28
    days on market $361,900 Active 92 DOM
44. 2026-07-26
    days on market $361,900 Active 90 DOM
45. 2026-07-24
    days on market $361,900 Active 88 DOM
46. 2026-07-23
    days on market $361,900 Active 87 DOM
47. 2026-07-22
    days on market $361,900 Active 86 DOM
48. 2026-07-21
    days on market $361,900 Active 85 DOM
49. 2026-07-20
    days on market $361,900 Active 84 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $361,900 Active 82 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,179
• − Property taxes: −$5,671
• − Insurance: −$1,890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,500
• − Management: −$2,500
• − Depreciation: −$10,999
• Taxable loss: −$13,485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,236
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior siding, landscaping improvements, and updating light fixtures.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Updating light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's aesthetic and energy efficiency. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Northside Elementary School F GA #663/1,228 Nat'l #27,846/41,679 Middle Lena Mae Moses Middle School D+ GA #97/470 Nat'l #4,522/14,009 High East Paulding High School F GA #225/424 Nat'l #13,947/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paulding County
• NCES district ID: 1304020
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $61,447
• Composite: 36.0/100
• National rank: #4784
• State rank: #33 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #11802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Paulding County · 175,714 people
• City population: 106,793
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 53,348
• Household income: $109,914
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Paulding County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,714 people
• By 2030: 186,082 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 204,414 · +16.3%
• By 2050: 217,040 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 236,980 · +34.9%
• By 2100: 238,314 · +35.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Paulding

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -38.5pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+38.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.85%
• Current HPI: 187.6553
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $361,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (total)
• Utilities: Natural gasElectricCentral air
• Home design: New construction planPlan name: The Ellijay
• Exterior features: Located at 45 Jones Ridge Dr, Dallas, GA 30132

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas, electric, and heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: The Ellijay