10727 Tiger Lily Dr

North Port, FL 34293

$272,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,464 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 140 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,566/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,426
• Tax + insurance: −$520
• HOA: −$254
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-173/mo
• Annual: $-2,073/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $76,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $272k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-173 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (5.6% below list).
• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $239k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1247 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.6% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?