3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,200 sqft ·
Built 1972
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 121 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,634/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$682
Tax + insurance
−$283
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$343
Net cashflow
$327/mo
Annual
$3,923/yr
Cap rate
9.31%
Cash-on-cash
10.78%
DSCR
1.48
1% rule
1.26%
Cash to close
$36,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#446 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Southside El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 486 students, 80% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
8 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.1% in Mabank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-31QGJ8CNJCAKSH
· Data 18 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29