930 Baker St

San Francisco, CA 94115

$2,995,000D-

8 bd · 10.0 ba · 8,000 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,044/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,706
• Tax + insurance: −$4,992
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,479
• Net cashflow: $-15,133/mo
• Annual: $-181,594/yr
• Cap rate: 0.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.65%
• DSCR: 0.04
• 1% rule: 0.24%
• Cash to close: $838,600

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/10.0-bath multifamily listed at $3.00M. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15k ($-182k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $805k (73.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $704k (76.5% below list).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.73M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $704k (76.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $276k of equity ($21k loan paydown + $255k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.6%/yr); 61 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.10M; list at $3.00M implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$442k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 0.2% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $7,044/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($152k/yr) (locally 2151% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 76% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.