12508 Winners Cir

El Paso, TX 79928

$250,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,801 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,213/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$531
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-94/mo
• Annual: $-1,130/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (11.5% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $221k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sierra Vista El (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Capt Walter E Clarke Middle (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,200 of 1,662 statewide, top 73%, 922 students, 75% FRL); Americas H S (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,352 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2093 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.