12508 Winners Cir · El Paso, TX 79928

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,801 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2018 5,277 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your vision to 12508 Winners Circle, a well-located Gateway Estates home in El Paso's fast-growing 79928 area. The floor plan offers comfortable everyday living with an open living/dining space, kitchen island, dark cabinetry, stainless appliances, tile flooring, shutters, a fireplace feature wall and a private primary suite with a generous bath and walk-in closet. Exterior highlights include a two-car garage, stone/wood-look accents, front and backyard turf and a fenced backyard. The home needs some repairs, flooring and cosmetic updates, and has been priced accordingly, making it a strong value with room to build equity near Eastlake Blvd, Loop 375 and nearby conveniences.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Kitchen island
• Generous bath

Tags

• OPEN LIVING DINING SPACE
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• FIREPLACE FEATURE WALL
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• GENEROUS BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as a fixer upper

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; Built by Santana Homes
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Membrane and tile roof
• Exterior features: Walled backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile floors; Concrete floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (forced air); Refrigerated cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Bars on windows (without release); Shutters; Double-pane windows; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sierra Vista El (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Capt Walter E Clarke Middle (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,200 of 1,662 statewide, top 73%, 922 students, 75% FRL); Americas H S (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,352 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2088 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,265 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-46,558
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-48,479
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79928

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 2088
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,213 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$427 /mo · $5,123/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,332

Max offer price $233,370

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $47	-5% $-23	+0% $-94	+5% $-165	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-269	-5% $-182	+0% $-94	+5% $-7	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $32	-0.5pp $-31	base $-94	+0.5pp $-159	+1.0pp $-225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12568 Barbaro Way El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1869	$2,400	$1.28	15d	1	0.28mi
12568 Barbaro Way El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1869	$2,400	$1.28	24d	1	0.28mi
1464 Paseo de Flor St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1865	$3,000	$1.61	15d	1	0.36mi
1747 Eased St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$2,300	$1.34	4d	1	0.36mi
1460 Paseo de Flor St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	2132	$1,900	$0.89	4d	1	0.37mi
12646 Amesbury Ave El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,200	$1.18	24d	1	0.41mi
1445 Paseo de Flor St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,730	$1.09	19d	1	0.41mi
12597 New Dawn Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	3.0	1855	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	0.44mi
12564 Western Gull Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,750	$1.18	44d	1	0.47mi
12509 Twin Leaf Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	3.0	1534	$1,700	$1.11	44d	1	0.56mi
1804 Ritzy Lou Pl El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1962	$1,995	$1.02	44d	1	0.56mi
12517 Twin Leaf Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	3.0	1903	$2,200	$1.16	15d	1	0.56mi
1409 Kimsha Dr Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.0	1874	$1,975	$1.05	4d	1	0.68mi
1408 Dominic Anakin Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1776	$1,850	$1.04	12d	1	0.75mi
12248 Via Granada Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1436	$1,650	$1.15	44d	1	0.76mi
12616 Christian Isaiah Ct El Paso, TX	4.0	3.0	2251	$1,950	$0.87	15d	1	0.82mi
12741 Presistence Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$3,095	$1.63	4d	1	0.88mi
12604 Paseo Rae Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1914	$1,850	$0.97	44d	1	0.90mi
12624 Paseo Rae Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1892	$1,850	$0.98	24d	1	0.92mi
1716 Aquilla Jane Ct El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$1,700	$1.00	44d	1	0.96mi
1657 Saint Vitus El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	1892	$1,750	$0.92	44d	1	0.97mi
12605 Azulejos St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	2031	$2,100	$1.03	15d	1	1.01mi
12107 Valley Quail Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,625	$1.20	3d	1	1.08mi
12107 Valley Quail Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,600	$1.18	44d	1	1.08mi
12126 Saint Crispin El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	44d	1	1.09mi
12664 Azulejos St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	2006	$2,100	$1.05	15d	1	1.09mi
12109 Saint Jude Ave El Paso, TX	4.0	3.0	1290	$1,800	$1.40	44d	1	1.13mi
12521 Angie Bombach Ave El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1487	$1,500	$1.01	15d	1	1.19mi
1860 Joan Francis Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,575	$1.04	44d	1	1.27mi
12073 El Greco Cir El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1391	$1,550	$1.11	4d	1	1.41mi
12836 Carefree Ave , TX	5.0	3.0	2180	$2,400	$1.10	24d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $250,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   remarks 689-char remark
10. 2026-06-01
    listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,123 · $427/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,123 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$5,123
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,124
• − Management: −$2,124
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,283
• After-tax cash flow: $153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Socorro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,318
• Composite: 25.67/100
• National rank: #7396
• State rank: #624 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Paso

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #1375

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 630,223
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 86,599
• Household income: $76,643
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 838.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 39% White 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.72%
• Current HPI: 200.6454
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $250,000 GEPARMLS
• 2019-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-03 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2019-02-19 Listed $210,900 GEPARMLS

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,123 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.