475 West Ln

Northville, NY 11931

$1,499,999B+

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,840 sqft · Built 2024 · Land · Pending · 220 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $30,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,866
• Tax + insurance: −$2,500
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,300
• Net cashflow: $13,334/mo
• Annual: $160,006/yr
• Cap rate: 16.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.10%
• DSCR: 2.70
• 1% rule: 2.00%
• Cash to close: $420,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $1.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($160k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($30k rent vs $1.50M).
• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.32M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.32M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $160k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $150k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 11 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $149k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $364k; list at $1.50M implies a 312% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $420k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$258k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.