475 West Ln · Northville, NY 11931

$1,499,999

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,840 sqft · Land · 220 Days on market

Built 2024 2.25 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

475 West lane

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Two primary suites
• Waterfall island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• WATERFALL ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• TWO PRIMARY SUITES
• HEATED PORCELAIN FLOORS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $1.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($160k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($30k rent vs $1.50M).
• Recommended offer: $1.32M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $160k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $150k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $420k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$258k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.32M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $149k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $364k; list at $1.50M implies a 312% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,319,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.10%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $1,666,631
• Equity at exit: $1,351,318

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.2%
• Equity multiple: 11.10×
• Total profit: $4,241,019
• Equity at exit: $2,914,168

Cash invested: $420,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11931

• Home prices YoY: 16.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $30,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,866
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,875 /mo · $22,500/yr
• Insurance: −$625
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,300
• Net cashflow: $13,334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,122

Max offer price $1,499,999

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14,370	-5% $13,852	+0% $13,334	+5% $12,816	+10% $12,297
Rent	-10% $10,964	-5% $12,149	+0% $13,334	+5% $14,519	+10% $15,704
Rate	-1.0pp $14,089	-0.5pp $13,715	base $13,334	+0.5pp $12,945	+1.0pp $12,550

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $375,000
• Closing costs: $45,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40 Overlook DR Aquebogue, NY	4.0	4.5	3800	$30,000	$7.89	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-03
   price $1,499,999
3. 2025-08-21
   price $1,599,999
4. 2025-07-26
   listed $1,649,000 Active
5. 2025-07-21
   historical
6. 2025-06-20
   listed $1,649,000 Active
7. 2025-03-20
   historical
8. 2025-01-01
   price $1,699,000
9. 2024-12-20
   listed $1,799,999 Active
10. 2024-11-30
    historical
11. 2024-10-16
    price $1,799,000
12. 2024-10-02
    status Active
13. 2024-09-30
    historical
14. 2024-09-07
    status Active
15. 2024-09-01
    historical
16. 2024-07-31
    price $1,899,000
17. 2023-02-03
    listed $1,925,000 Active
18. 2022-07-08
    soldstatus $364,000 Closed
19. 2022-06-10
    status Pending
20. 2022-03-11
    listed $389,000 Active
21. 2021-08-27
    soldstatus $269,000 Closed
22. 2021-04-06
    status Pending
23. 2020-04-16
    status Active
24. 2020-04-16
    historical
25. 2019-04-17
    listed $269,000 New
26. 2018-01-02
    historical
27. 2017-11-27
    price $285,000
28. 2017-10-20
    price $295,000
29. 2017-08-08
    price $305,000
30. 2017-06-22
    listed $315,000 New
31. 2016-01-24
    historical
32. 2014-02-24
    listed $295,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $360,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$84,023
• − Property taxes: −$22,500
• − Insurance: −$7,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$28,800
• − Management: −$28,800
• − Depreciation: −$43,636
• Taxable income: $144,740
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$34,738
• After-tax cash flow: $125,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.85%
• Current HPI: 199.64
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+408.5% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $1,499,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $1,599,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-26 Listed $1,649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Listed $1,649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-01 Price Changed $1,699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-20 Listed $1,799,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-16 Price Changed $1,799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-07 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-31 Price Changed $1,899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-03 Listed $1,925,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-08 Sold (MLS) $364,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-11 Listed $389,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-27 Sold (MLS) $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-16 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-17 Listed $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-27 Price Changed $285,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-20 Price Changed $295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-08 Price Changed $305,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-22 Listed $315,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-24 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-24 Listed $295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid