161 Carroll St

Shreveport, LA 71105

$219,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,647 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 153 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,693/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-55/mo
• Annual: $-655/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-655/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (22.7% below list).
• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Caddo Parish Middle Magnet School (math 79% / reading 93%, grade A+, #1 of 218 statewide, top 0%, 1,003 students, 23% FRL); Captain Shreve High School (math 25% / reading 41%, grade F, #116 of 265 statewide, top 44%, 1,851 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 64% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 26% district-wide (+33 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Caddo Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?