129 Earl Phillips Ln

Hilham, TN 38568

$219,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-562/mo
• Annual: $-6,741/yr
• Cap rate: 3.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.99%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-562 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (37.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (45.0% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (45.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Overton County (rural): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #70 of 139 in TN (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rickman Elementary (math 41% / reading 37%, grade F, #253 of 952 statewide, top 27%, 709 students, 0% FRL); Livingston Middle School (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #135 of 333 statewide, top 43%, 276 students, 0% FRL); Livingston Academy (math 8% / reading 41%, grade F, #143 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 885 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Overton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Overton County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.