129 Earl Phillips Ln · Hilham, TN 38568

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 2025 1.00 ac lot $146/sqft · 27% below area Est $300k · 27% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

a stunning brand-new mobile home with a permanent foundation, offering the perfect blend of modern living and convenience. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a spacious 1,500 square feet, Situated on 1.02 acres, this home is designed for comfort and style. As you enter, you'll be greeted by an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The contemporary kitchen features brand new appliances, ample counter space, and a generous layout that makes cooking a delight. The three well-sized bedrooms provide plenty of space for the whole family, with the master suite offering a private bathroom for added convenience. Natural light floods each room, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout. Additional 1 acres is available at $239,999. COME SEE IT BEFORE ITS GONE! Eligible for USDA 100 PERCENT LOAN, VHA , FHA , CONVENTIONAL LOANS

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 43 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-562 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (37.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (45.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (45.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Overton County (rural): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #70 of 139 in TN (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rickman Elementary (math 41% / reading 37%, grade F, #253 of 952 statewide, top 27%, 709 students, 0% FRL); Livingston Middle School (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #135 of 333 statewide, top 43%, 276 students, 0% FRL); Livingston Academy (math 8% / reading 41%, grade F, #143 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 885 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Overton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Overton County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $120,466 (45.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.99%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,042
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -27.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $83,511
• Equity at exit: $197,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.47×
• Total profit: $274,101
• Equity at exit: $425,469

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38568

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,285/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,916

Max offer price $137,710

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-410	-5% $-486	+0% $-562	+5% $-637	+10% $-713
Rent	-10% $-657	-5% $-609	+0% $-562	+5% $-514	+10% $-467
Rate	-1.0pp $-451	-0.5pp $-506	base $-562	+0.5pp $-619	+1.0pp $-676

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 932-char remark

   Show marketing remark (932 chars)

   a stunning brand-new mobile home with a permanent foundation, offering the perfect blend of modern living and convenience. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a spacious 1,500 square feet, Situated on 1.02 acres, this home is designed for comfort and style. As you enter, you'll be greeted by an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The contemporary kitchen features brand new appliances, ample counter space, and a generous layout that makes cooking a delight. The three well-sized bedrooms provide plenty of space for the whole family, with the master suite offering a private bathroom for added convenience. Natural light floods each room, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout. Additional 1 acres is available at $239,999. COME SEE IT BEFORE ITS GONE! Eligible for USDA 100 PERCENT LOAN, VHA , FHA , CONVENTIONAL LOANS

2. 2026-03-26
   listed $219,000 Active 932-char remark

   Show marketing remark (932 chars)

   a stunning brand-new mobile home with a permanent foundation, offering the perfect blend of modern living and convenience. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a spacious 1,500 square feet, Situated on 1.02 acres, this home is designed for comfort and style. As you enter, you'll be greeted by an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The contemporary kitchen features brand new appliances, ample counter space, and a generous layout that makes cooking a delight. The three well-sized bedrooms provide plenty of space for the whole family, with the master suite offering a private bathroom for added convenience. Natural light floods each room, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout. Additional 1 acres is available at $239,999. COME SEE IT BEFORE ITS GONE! Eligible for USDA 100 PERCENT LOAN, VHA , FHA , CONVENTIONAL LOANS

3. 2026-03-13
   historical
4. 2026-02-25
   price $229,999
5. 2026-02-24
   price $229,999
6. 2026-01-14
   listed $239,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,285
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,156
• − Management: −$1,156
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$10,875
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,610
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Overton County
• NCES district ID: 4703330
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,479
• Composite: 23.47/100
• National rank: #7879
• State rank: #70 of 139 in TN

Livability — Hilham

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,989

Population outlook (Overton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,942 people
• By 2030: 21,633 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 20,812 · -5.1%
• By 2050: 19,770 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 17,125 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 13,695 · -37.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Overton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.2) · D 17.4% · R 81.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -64.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.2 2020: R+58.6 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+25.7 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.67%
• Current HPI: 459.5824
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — UCMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $219,000 UCMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $229,999 UCMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $229,999 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listed $239,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid