3770 Lonzalo Way

New Port Richey, FL 34655

$267,590C-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,463 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,270/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,403
• Tax + insurance: −$446
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-56/mo
• Annual: $-670/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $74,925

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $268k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-670/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (15.2% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#67 in FL, #1,139 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Longleaf Elementary School (math 69% / reading 73%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 639 students, 40% FRL); Seven Springs Middle School (math 73% / reading 65%, grade A, #68 of 571 statewide, top 12%, 1,628 students, 36% FRL); James W. Mitchell High School (math 60% / reading 63%, grade B-, #100 of 667 statewide, top 15%, 2,155 students, 32% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pasco average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 921 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 74% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in New Port Richey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.